When the Eagles traded the No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and dropped down to No. 12 this past Friday, the first reaction from many fans was the same — there goes any shot at LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
Chances are that is probably true. They probably won’t be getting Chase after Friday’s trade.
The dream of Chase in midnight green, however, is not gone.
Despite dropping six spots in the draft, there is still a chance the Eagles could end up with Chase,. In fact, the odds of it happening are better than you might think.
To start, receivers don’t get selected very high in the draft that often.
In the last 10 drafts, 15 total have been taken in the first top 10. Over the last three drafts, however, zero have gone inside the top 10. The league is trending against taking receiver early, which is probably part of the reason the Eagles made the deal. It is especially noteworthy that none went in the top 10 last year, when the draft was viewed as having a handful of elite-level, No. 1 wide receivers. The receivers at the top of the class last year were viewed as better than the top of the class this year.
First WR taken in last 10 NFL Drafts:
2020: No. 12 overall
2019: No. 25 overall
2018: No. 24 overall
2017: No. 5 (also No. 7, No. 9)
2016: No. 15
2015: No. 4 (also No. 7)
2014: No. 4 (also No. 7)
2013: No. 8
2012: No. 5
2011: No. 4 (also No. 6)
So while Chase could definitely go in the top 10, recent history suggests that the league might not value receivers as much as they used to, and they haven’t been spending premium, top-10 picks on them. Chances are Chase would have to be the top receiver selected to go in the top 10.
Prior to making the trade Howie Roseman likely examined the draft board and concluded that, if he wanted Chase, there are simply not many teams that need a wide receiver in the 11 picks before the Eagles go on the clock:
1 Jacksonville: Not taking a receiver
2 New York Jets: Not taking a receiver
3 San Francisco: Not taking a receiver
4 Atlanta: Not taking a receiver (Maybe Kyle Pitts)
5 Cincinnati: Wild Card
6 Miami: Need a Receiver
7 Detroit: Need a Receiver
8 Carolina: Not taking a receiver
9 Denver: Not taking a receiver
10 Dallas: Not taking a receiver
11 New York Giants: Not taking a receiver
Atlanta at No. 4 won’t be taking a wide receiver, but if a team trades up for to take a quarterback there — which is very possible — that pushes Pitts down the board, which is even better news for the Eagles if they want Chase. Some think five quarterbacks could go in the top 10 picks. Pitts is almost certainly going ahead of Chase. If that happens, that means five players need to go ahead of Chase for him to fall to the Eagles.
Cincinnati, Miami and Detroit are the only teams that as of right now would seem to be in the running for taking Chase. Cincinnati doesn’t need Chase, after hitting on Tee Higgins last year, but the LSU connection between Chase and Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is obvious. The Bengals top need, however, is offensive line and chances are Oregon’s Penei Sewell will be on the board. Chase is a possibility, but offensive tackle seems far more likely.
Miami at No. 6 is a logical landing spot for Chase, and it would not be surprising at all if the Dolphins took him, despite having DeVante Parker and Will Fuller. The Dolphins coaching staff did, however, spend a week at the Senior Bowl with Alabama wide receiver Devonta Smith. Could they take Smith over Chase? What about Kyle Pitts?It is definitely possible. Considering Smith and Pitts both dominated college football last season, either would be a perfectly defensible selection over Chase.
If Chase makes it past Miami, things could get interesting.
Detroit at No. 7 is a possibility, as they just lost Kenny Golladay, but they have so many needs it is hard to envision them taking a receiver. The defensive side of the ball, or even a quarterback if one is still there, feels more likely.
If Chase does get to No. 7, with Detroit on the clock, the Eagles could try to move back up — and won’t cost that much to do it.
If Chase falls to Detroit at No. 7: (300 point difference)
Getting from No. 12 to No. 7 to get Chase would be costly, but it is definitely possible. The Eagles could offer their 3rd-round pick, No. 70 overall, which is worth 240 points. That gets them pretty close. If Detroit wanted even-or-better value for the pick, the Eagles could add their 4th-round pick, No. 123, which is worth 49 points. That would get them to 289 points. Trading a third-and-fourth round picks to go from No. 12 to No. 7 would cost them two picks, but it would essentially mean they would end up with the same player many wanted them to take at No. 6, only having traded No. 70 and No. 123 for a 2022 1st-round pick.
If Chase falls to Carolina at No. 8: (200 point difference)
This one is pretty straight forward. If Chase makes it past Miami and Detroit, the Eagles could offer up their 3rd-round pick, No. 70. The pick is worth 240 points, which is an overpay, but would secure them Chase. Of course, if Chase makes it past Detroit and Miami, the Eagles might just gamble that Chase makes it past Denver, Dallas and New York, which he almost certainly would unless a team trades up.
If Chase falls to Denver at No. 9: (150 point difference)
If Chase is there at No. 9, and the Eagles want to go get him and not risk another team trading up, they could offer future 2nd-or-3rd round picks. The 2022 2nd-round pick would be an overpay, the 2022 3rd-round pick would probably be fair value. There wouldn’t be a natural trade in terms of even value from this year’s draft, unless Denver knew they could get who they wanted at No. 12, and would accept the Eagles’ 4th-round pick (49 points) combined with a later-round pick. The benefit the Eagles would have in a trade over other teams is Denver would only have to drop to No. 12, as opposed to further down the draft if they were dealing with another team.
Yes, things would need to break the Eagles way to land Chase. They would need a few things to break their way to get him at No. 12.
This order on draft night, however, isn’t that crazy:
1 Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2 New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
3 San Francisco: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
4 Atlanta: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
5 Cincinnati: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
6 Miami: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
7 Detroit: Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
8 Carolina: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
9 Denver: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
10 Dallas: Caleb Fairly, CB, Virginia Tech
11 New York Giants: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
Add in the possibility that Smith could go in the top 11, and Chase falling to the Eagles should not be ruled out— and you have to wonder if the Eagles made the move down thinking it is a possibility as well.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!