The chances of Jordan Davis turning into a solid NFL starter are very high.
At 6-foot-6, 350 pounds, Davis is such a massive defensive tackle that simply putting him in the middle of the defensive line will help. That was clear at Georgia, where Davis helped the other players along the defensive line get single blocks simply because of how big and disruptive he was. He won the award for best player in college football for a reason. He was a huge part of the most dominant line in college football. If he is the same player in the NFL he was at Georgia he will have a successful NFL career .
But the first round isn’t around finding solid NFL starters.
It is about finding difference makers.
All-Pro players.
To truly be special and worth trading up to No. 13 for Davis is going to have to be that. Special. That is the expectation that comes with a top 15 pick. Special defensive linemen that become All-Pros in the NFL are capable of impacting the passer on third down, the down where great defenses wins and great players make their money.
That is where the risk, worry and projection comes in for the Eagles.
As special as Davis is as an athlete, the bottom line is that when the Georgia defense faced third downs in their biggest games of the season the coaches did not put Davis on the field. Perhaps that is because after playing the majority of first-and-second downs he was tired. Perhaps it was because they simply liked other players out on the field better.
Either reason is worrisome for a player the Eagles just used three draft picks, including No. 13 overall, on.
Here is a look at Davis’ usage vs. Michigan and Alabama, Georgia’s two biggest games of the year, in the College Football Playoffs.
Jordan Davis vs. Alabama:
Davis made his presence felt early against Alabama, breaking through on the fourth play of the game to get a hit on Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. The play was extremely impressive by Jordan, who got right to Young after the snap. It was initially ruled a fumble, and Georgia returned it for a touchdown, but replay overturned it. Regardless, Young made a nice play to get rid of the ball to stop Davis from being credited with the sack.
After that, however, Davis kind of disappeared.
Davis did face double teams at times, including the play right after he got the near sack on Young, but there weren’t many other moments that stood out for Davis. Georgia barely put him on the field on 3rd down, instead putting him in the game almost exclusively on 1st/2nd downs.
A snap-by-snap look at all the 3rd downs Georgia faced vs. Alabama:
3rd Downs vs. Alabama: (47 snaps, 54%)
3rd-and-2: Not On Field
3rd-and-1: Not On Field
3rd-and-5: Not On Field
3rd-and-3: Not On Field
3rd-and-6: Not On Field
3rd-and-1: On Field (flag, no snap)
3rd-and-6: Not On Field
3rd-and-Goal at 6: Not On Field
3rd-and-7: Not On Field (flag, no snap)
3rd-and-2: On Field
3rd-and-8: Not On Field
3rd-and-3: Not On Field
3rd-and-2: On Field
3rd-and-1: On Field
3rd-and-11: Not On Field
3rd-and-3: Not On Field
3rd-and-Goal at the 3: Not On Field
3rd-and-Goal at the 3: Not On Field
3rd-and-12: Not On Field
3rd-and-4: Not On Field
3rd-and-10: Not On Field
3rd-and-28: Not On Field
Overall: 4/22
As you can see, Davis only got on the field on a few 3rd-and-shorts. What was especially noticeable was that he wasn’t on the field for any of the three third downs that were near the goal line. Instead, Georgia went with (the majority of the time) Nolan Smith, Jalen Carter, Devonte Wyatt, and Travon Walker on 3rd downs.
You can look at that two ways. One, all of those players are special. Walker was the No. 1 pick in the draft. Wyatt was a first-round pick. Carter will be a first-round pick next year. All of them are better pass rushers than Davis, so it is understandable that Georgia would put them on the field more on big downs.
But while that might be true, Davis is a top-15 pick in the draft. He should be on the field in big situations regardless of who his teammates are.
Jordan Davis vs. Michigan:
3rd Downs vs. Michigan: (25 snaps, 38%)
3rd-and-4: Not On Field
3rd-and-5: Not On Field
3rd-and-16: Not On Field
3rd-and-1: On Field
3rd-and-16: Not On Field
3rd-and-8: Not On Field
3rd-and-16: Not On Field
3rd-and-7: Not On Field
3rd-and-3: Not On Field
3rd-and-8: Not On Field
3rd-and-6: Not On Field
3rd-and-5: Not On Field
3rd-and-3: Not On Field
3rd-and-10: Not On Field
3rd-and-Goal at 5: Not On Field
Overall: 1/15
Davis had a solid game game against Michigan, with the highlight being a nice play vs. the run where he beat a blocker, shot into the backfield and hit Michigan for a loss to put them into 2nd-and-11. That is the hope, at least initially, for Davis. By making plays against the run Davis will help put the opposing offense into tough situations on 2nd-and-3rd downs, making life easier for the pass rushers on the roster.
Overall:
Add up both games and Davis was on the field for 5/37 3rd-down snaps vs. Michigan and Alabama — just 13%. He wasn’t on the field for a single one of the 13 third-and-longs, the obvious passing down, Georgia’s defense faced against Michigan or Alabama. He was on the field for just 5/14 3rd-and-shorts.
3rd-and-short (4 or less): 5/14
3rd-and-long (7 or longer): 0/13
One of the rationals for Davis playing such limited snaps on the season (just 38%) has been that Georgia wanted to get other players time on the field. Another has been that they were winning games by such a large margin they were able to rest their starters. Both of those hold some truth, but neither explain why against Alabama — the championship game that was close until the final minutes of the fourth quarter — Davis played a fraction of the third-down snaps.
The good news is that like all rookies, Davis isn’t a finished product. He is a great athlete. He has the tools to improve as a pass rusher.
To be worth the pick, however, Davis has to be on the field on impact downs. It is is Week 17, and the Eagles’ defense is facing a big 3rd down against the Dallas Cowboys in a game with playoff implications, they are going to want their best defenders on the field regardless of situation. The players they invested the most money and resources in. They players they count on to make a difference.
Davis has to be one of those players for him to be worth the pick.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com