It’s that time of year.
As we approach summer, the NFL season is only months away. For the Eagles, it means legitimate optimism and hope for both the franchise and quarterback Jalen Hurts.
At this time last year, I ranked Hurts as the 20th best quarterback in the NFL. I believe he lived up to that ranking by having a successful first full year as a starter, improving as a passer from where he was in a short sample as a rookie and leading the Eagles to the playoffs.
Now he enters a crucial year in both his development and career trajectory.
Here’s where I think Hurts ranks right now. This isn’t a historical ranking. It’s not based on the next five years (so age doesn’t matter that much). It’s just based on who I believe are the top NFL quarterbacks heading into the coming season based on recent track record, supporting cast and where each player is on his career trajectory.
1. Aaron Rodgers: Back-to-back MVPs. The best and most consistent player in the league during the regular season.
2. Patrick Mahomes: The great Mahomes has slid, evidenced by the end of first half and second half swoon in the AFC Championship Game. Is Mahomes on the path to challenge for all-time great status or will he be this generation’s Brett Favre (winning early, putting up big numbers, but slipping from his early-career peak)?
3. Joe Burrow: He has the “it” factor that every fan base dreams of when a quarterback enters the building. Gets extra credit for lifting the Bengals so far, so fast.
4. Josh Allen: The spectacular playoff games made people forget Allen’s inconsistent regular season. There’s an MVP and future Super Bowl champion in here, if Allen can reel in the three or four poor games per season. The Bills need consistency from their leader to earn home field and a real chance at a Lombardi.
5. Tom Brady: This is admittedly a projection, and one that Brady may make look bad: I don’t sense he’s all-in any longer. Brady flirted too much with retirement and now has his post-career lined up. For a quarterback that gained an advantage by outworking (both mentally and physically) everyone else, I think it catches up to him now.
6. Matthew Stafford: No, he’s not a Hall of Famer—yet. But Stafford is now a champion after one of the best playoff runs in history. No quarterback in the NFL was better in the fourth quarter last season.
7. Justin Herbert: A leap into the top five is all but a certainty as Herbert progresses. As good of an arm as I’ve ever seen live in person in the NFL. Next stop: The postseason.
8. Russell Wilson: I don’t believe Wilson is in the kind of decline his numbers last year stated. But if you don’t think there’s reason to wonder about how quickly he’ll go from a top eight-ish quarterback to somewhere below No. 10 on this list, you haven’t been paying attention to Wilson running less and looking less spry in recent years. Denver needs to win with him quickly.
9. Dak Prescott: The Cowboys have a very good and very consistent quarterback. The only problem is they are paying him like a great one.
10. Kyler Murray: You can watch Murray on his best day and make this case for him in the top five. You can watch him at his worst and want to drop him to No. 20. He’s a mobile Jay Cutler: Talented enough to tease with possibilities of greatness, but enough pouting and selfishness to make you wonder if he’ll come close to winning anything of note.
11. Lamar Jackson: It doesn’t ever look pretty. It seems crazy to pay him market price as he goes into his late 20s. Yet when he’s on the field (37-12 as a starter), the Ravens win at one of the highest marks in the NFL.
12. Deshaun Watson: Is he playing? Is he suspended? Here’s what I’m sure of: Watson won’t be worth the money or draft picks the Browns spent on him.
13. Kirk Cousins: Perpetually in the middle of my quarterback lists.
14. Derek Carr: The Raiders long-time leader is better than I once gave him credit for. He’s also without a playoff win entering the ninth year of his pro career and currently the fourth-best quarterback in his own division.
15. Jalen Hurts: We’re here to talk about Hurts’ 2022, and how high he’ll rise. But let’s not ignore what Hurts did in 2021, which has now somehow become an underrated campaign thanks to a late-season ankle injury and poor playoff performance. Here’s where Hurts ranked among all quarterbacks in some key categories:
Yards per attempt: 14th
Intended air yards per pass: 4th
Yards after catch per completion: 4th
On-target throw percentage: 8th
Bad throw percentage: 3rd (as in third best)
Yards per scramble: 5th
Hurts gets better every season, and has been on that trajectory since his Alabama days. The Eagles offense, despite suspect weapons opposite rookie DeVonta Smith, finished tied for 10th (with the Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase Bengals) in the NFL in yards per play. This offense has the potential to be one of the NFL’s best with Hurts leading the way. Don’t be surprised when that happens.
16. Mac Jones: Don’t let Jones’ rough December and playoff game distract you from how well he played as a rookie. If the infrastructure around him (offensive coaches) gave me more confidence, he’d be higher on this list.
17. Matt Ryan: Think of Ryan in Indianapolis as Philip Rivers 2.0. The veteran will have a late-career bounce back and return to the postseason. He’s the calming kind of quarterback the Colts lacked last season.
18. Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance: Your guess is as good as mine as to what the 49ers are doing at quarterback in 2022. I still believe Garoppolo gives Kyle Shanahan the best chance to win now, but Lance is likely going to be the guy soon. His physical ability and infrastructure in San Fran could lead to a very big leap once he’s ready to run the system at a high level.
19. Ryan Tannehill: The slip from an underrated, top-10 guy in his early Tennessee days to whatever you call last season was stark. I might be overrating Tannehill here, who could lose his job and be in the 20s by next season.
20. Trevor Lawrence: I think Lawrence was overrated coming out of Clemson and not close to the next big thing he was made out to be. But his skill set and physical tools do remind me of a pre-injury Carson Wentz. Doug Pederson will know how to get the most of that.
21. Jared Goff: I like Goff more than most fans do. I’m not going to apologize for it.
22. Justin Fields: There’s some things there to like, but everything else about the Bears could ruin him.
23. Mitch Truibsky/Kenny Pickett: Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. That streak will be in jeopardy with this combination.
24. Carson Wentz: After wearing out his welcome in Indianapolis, Wentz is back in the NFC and likely to drag another franchise down. Wentz’s team has gone under their market win total in five of his six seasons in the NFL. He makes teams worse, and there’s really no better way to explain his career.
25. Daniel Jones: The former No. 6 overall pick owns the ugly combination of lacking durability and turning the ball over too often when he’s actually on the field. He’s only this high because Brian Daboll will likely get the best out of him, whatever that means.
26. Jameis Winston: The hype surrounding Winston and the Saints is bizarre considering how poor Winston has been as a NFL quarterback, the fact that he’s coming off a serious knee injury, and the loss of Sean Payton to make it all work.
27. Zach Wilson: I see the reasons to be wowed. The off-platform throws are jaw-dropping. His arm talent is for real. Yet his propensity for throwing the ball to players wearing the opposing jersey was jarring to watch. The Jets are on the right track, but I’m not sure they have the right quarterback.
28. Tua Tagovailoa: I feel bad for Dolphins fans. Tagovailoa ranked 30th in intended air yards per pass attempt (ahead of just Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger and Goff) as he dinked and dunked his way to competency. Miami will be in the market for a quarterback next offseason.
29. Davis MIlls: The rookie from Stanford did some decent things in 2021, but I’m far from sold.
30. Marcus Mariota: Are we really doing the Mariota thing again? Don’t be shocked if Desmond Ridder pulls a Wilson/Matt Flynn from 2012 and takes this job in training camp.
31. Sam Darnold: The Panthers aren’t serious about winning if Darnold is their quarterback in the fall.
32. Geno Smith/Drew Lock: It doesn’t matter which one plays. This will be the worst quarterback situation in the NFL.
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