Worst to first.
As we get set to kick off the 2021 NFL season, the Eagles are an unknown. For the first time in years, we don’t have great conviction about the head coach or the quarterback. This has been labeled a rebuilding or retooling year by many, so expectations are as low as they have been in six seasons.
And that’s led to something that very rarely happens: A fan base sleeping on the potential of its own team.
Are the 2021 Eagles going to win the Super Bowl? Probably not. But can this team surprise, build a foundation for the future and get to the postseason? Absolutely.
Here’s why I believe the Eagles are going to win the NFC East.
The rest of the division stinks
Let’s just start with the most important part of all of this. The competition still isn’t good. We’re not talking about winning the NFC West or AFC North. This goal won’t take 11 or 12 wins to accomplish. In fact, I think it can be won with less than 10 victories. And when looking at the Cowboys, Washington Football Team and New York Giants, assuming any of the three will win double-digit games is a fool’s errand.
Dallas has its star quarterback coming off major injury, and nursed through (different) physical issues all summer. It’s defense was historically bad in 2020, and is pinning its hopes of a turnaround on a rookie linebacker and Dan Quinn. The offensive line isn’t what it once was. Mike McCarthy looked overmatched and like the game passed by him during his first year in Dallas. Whenever the Cowboys are the favorites, it’s wise to bet against them.
Washington won it last year, basically automatically disqualifying them from contention in 2021. No team has won this division in back-to-back years since the 2003-04 Eagles. Ryan Fitzpatrick? Really? I’m convinced that people think Fitzpatrick is cool until he plays for their team. Then they realize he’s not a full-time starter and never wins big games. As for the dominant defense? It’s ferocious and Chase Young is a monster, but here are the quarterbacks they beat last year: Carson Wentz, Andy Dalton (twice), Ryan Finley, Ben Roethlisberger, Nick Mullens, Nate Sudfeld. Quarterbacks they’ll face in 2021: Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Prescott (twice).
The Giants can’t block, have a quarterback that turns the ball over and gets hurt, have watched their impressive collection of skill players nurse injuries all summer, have a head coach that watched offensive lineman quit mid-summer after his tough guy act wore thin, and a general manager that’s on the hot seat. Oh, and this franchise has had one winning season in a decade.
Best combination of offensive and defensive lines in the division
Games are won in the trenches. It’s cliche, but it’s also true. Go up and down the rosters in this division and tell me which team has a better combination on the two sides. You won’t find it. The Eagles are healthy and potentially excellent on both the offensive and defensive lines heading into the season, a far cry from last year.
Better quarterback play and far better leadership
The Eagles made a big upgrade at the most important position on the field, and it goes beyond just the numbers.
Jalen Hurts is a better quarterback right now than Carson Wentz.
If you’re still refusing to admit it, consider the following: On a per play basis, the Eagles offense (with the same shaky offensive line and subpar group of skill players) functioned 22 percent better after the switch to Hurts last season. With Hurts under center, the Eagles averaged 5.73 yards per play. That’s roughly on par with last year’s Saints. Before the switch to Hurts, the Eagles were averaging 4.70 yards per play, effectively on par with last year’s Jets.
And that was without the benefit of a training camp taking No. 1 reps. Hurts will be improved. Wentz’s career is falling apart. The Eagles will reap the benefits of both.
Of course, there’s also the leadership factor. Hurts, a natural leader from the minute he’s walked onto any football field, started winning over his teammates last season. It carried over to the offseason. He was just named a team captain. Meanwhile, Wentz is unabashedly unvaccinated as he starts a new chapter of alienating teammates and putting himself above the team in a new city.
The schedule advantage, including a new quirk
Here’s how the schedule can swing this division to the Eagles late in the season:
-The Eagles won’t get on a plane after arriving back from Denver on Nov. 14. Here’s how the season closes: vs. New Orleans, at Giants, at Jets, bye, vs. Washington, vs. Giants, at Washington, vs. Dallas.
-This year’s 17th game will feature NFC teams traveling to an AFC Divisional counterpart that finished in the same place in the standings last year. So, this year pivots the NFC East vs. the AFC East.
The matchups (based on last year’s divisional standing): Washington Football Team at Buffalo. Dallas at New England. New York at Miami. Eagles at Jets.
That could be a full one-game swing for the Eagles in the NFC East standings.
Turnover luck (or skill) can flip everything
The 2021 Eagles season was awful on the basis of three main tenants: Bad quarterback play, terrible injury luck and poor turnover differential. We know quarterback play will be improved. So far, so good on injuries. Now it’s time to protect the ball and win games.
Last year, the average regular-season wins per team in the bottom eight of turnover differential was 4.6.
Last year, the average regular-season wins per team in the top eight of turnover differential was 11.6.
The Eagles were at minus-10 last year, fourth-worst in the NFL. For the first time in a long time, the defensive coordinator is teaching and preaching turnovers. The offense should hold onto the ball more effectively. If the Eagles turnover margin sees positive regression, wins will follow.
New vibe, new energy
I was a Doug Pederson fan. A big one. I deflected all blame away from him and his coaching staff. But the more I watch and listen to Nick Sirianni (especially when he’s working with young wide receivers) and his staff (including defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon), it’s hard not to pick up on the energy and teaching going on at the NovaCare Complex. Attention to detail was lacking last year from the sidelines. I doubt it will be again.
This season won’t be a magic carpet ride. The coach and quarterback will have bumps in the road. A 1-3 start isn’t out of the question. But if the Eagles stay the course, stay healthy, and lean on the strengths of this roster, a 9-8 record and division title are very attainable. This season reminds me of 2013. No one saw it coming with a first-year coach and a young quarterback. Then it ended with a home playoff game. This one will too.