Your move, Dave Dombrowski.
Thanks to a hot stretch, a very mediocre division and a significant injury (Braves star Ronald Acuna is out for the year with a torn ACL), the Phillies will enter the second half of the season with legitimate playoff hopes. In fact, Baseball-Reference’s projections peg the Phillies as the team with the best chance to win the division.
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Barring a sudden cold streak (Miami is up next on the schedule, so never say never), the Phillies look like a trade deadline buyer. And why not? Dombrowski didn’t take this job to sit and watch other teams try. There’s a division to be won, even if it’s going to be won with around 85 wins.
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Here are some potential Phillies trade targets to watch leading up to the July 30 MLB trade deadline. All could fit the mold for a team that is likely to buy, but should largely be unwilling to empty out the best of a less-than-great farm system.
Relief pitchers
Craig Kimbrel, Cubs (31.2 IP, 0.57 ERA, 54 K): The Phillies have blown 22 saves. Kimbrel is back to being one of baseball’s best closers, with a Hall of Fame-caliber 12 years under his belt in the majors. Comes with a team option for 2022. Not cheap ($16M per season), but it’s time for owner John Middleton to pay the tax. The first big deal Dombrowski made in Boston? Trading for Kimbrel.
Ian Kennedy, Rangers (30.1 P, 2.67 ERA, 32 K): The former 20-game winner and NL Cy Young contender has transformed himself into a good relief pitcher on a bad team. Kennedy, a free-agent-to-be, will be dealt by the deadline. He’ll help a contender. Could be the Phillies closer, or team with Ranger Suarez in a high-leverage role.
Richard Rodriguez, Pirates (35 IP, 2.29 ERA, 29 K): Veteran (31) having a breakout season on a bad team. My favorite part of Rodriguez’s game: He basically throws one pitch (fastball) over and over, yet hitters can’t have success off him.
Kendall Graveman, Mariners (28 IP, 0.95 ERA, 25 K): Rental. Starter turned reliever. Owns a 5.00 SO/BB, giving him some of the best command for any hard-throwing reliever in baseball.
Michael Fulmer, Tigers (40 IP, 4.05 ERA, 42 K): One of Dombrowski’s big moves before leaving the Tigers? Dealing away Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets in a deal centered around Fulmer. The big righty showed promise as a starter before injuries set him back. Has now become an impact reliever. Under team control through 2022. Currently on IL, which could make him cheaper to acquire.
Taylor Rogers, Twins (37 IP, 3.35 ERA, 54 SO): All-Star closer. Under team control through 2022. Since arriving in the majors in 2016, Rogers owns a 3.14 ERA, 3.03 FIP and has pitched in 315 games. It’s hard to find relievers this good and this durable over a long period.
Starting pitchers
Kyle Gibson, Rangers (17 GS, 102 IP, 2.29 ERA): Originally a Phillies draft pick back in 2006. AL All-Star after a career-year kind of first half. While his ERA points to some luck, we’re still talking about a pro that would be a major upgrade behind Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin in the rotation.
Danny Duffy, Royals (11 GS, 57 IP, 2.53 ERA): I’ve always been a Duffy guy. Lefty. Part of the Royals World Series team in 2015. Having a resurgent walk year.
Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks (19 GS, 109 IP, 4.46 ERA): Comes with a very affordable $5.25M team option for 2022, potentially locking in a No. 4 starter for next season. One of baseball’s underrated arms. Leads baseball in games started this season. Has pitched to some bad luck (and vs. some great teams) in the NL West. Joe Blanton-ish.
Tyler Anderson, Pirates (17 GS, 97.1 IP, 4.35 ERA): This would fit the Drew Smyly-Jason Vargas mold of recent years. Anderson is fine. He’d be an upgrade over Matt Moore or Vince Velasquez. It wouldn’t excite you, but would give the team a slightly better chance for a small cost.
Zach Davies, Cubs (19 GS, 92.2 IP, 4.36 ERA): I’ve been doubting Davies’ stuff since he arrived in the bigs in 2015, and all he’s done is post a 3.86 ERA over nearly 800 career innings. He can get outs. Add him into a Cubs-Phillies blockbuster.
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Center fielders
Jake Fraley, Mariners (.848 OPS, 143 OPS+, 1.6 WAR): This guy would be a fan favorite in Philly within innings. He plays the game hard. Works a great at-bat. The overachieving Mariners are in the AL Wild Card picture, but things could change fast out of the gate in the second half. With a future outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and Julio Rodrirugez, the Mariners could look to sell high on a guy that probably doesn’t have a spot in their long-term lineup. The 26-year-old isn’t even arbitration eligible until 2024. This could be a long-term move for the Phillies outfield.
Whit Merrifield, Royals (.728 OPS, 98 OPS+, 1.8 WAR): Think about what Scott Kingery was supposed to be. Versatile. Ability to play infield or outfield, stolen base threat and line-drive hitter with pop. That’s Merrifield, only as a fully formed veteran All-Star. Having a down year (by his standards), yet is still on pace for a 3.0 WAR season and 40 stolen bases. Could play center field down the stretch, then move back to an infield position next year. Spark plug player.
A former NL MVP that deserves his own category
Kris Bryant, Cubs (.854 OPS, 133 OPS+, 1.9 WAR): During Tuesday’s MLB All-Star Game, Bryant said that his favorite position to play was center field. So why not try to slug all the way to the playoffs? Bryce Harper’s Las Vegas buddy would add a former NL MVP to the lineup in the midst of his walk year. Maybe it’s a rental. Maybe he stays to play third base long-term. I don’t know what the Cubs would ask for in a Bryant-Kimbrel (maybe Davies too?) blockbuster, but the Phillies need to see if they can pull it off.
Imagine this lineup down the stretch.
1. Segura, 2B
2. Bryant, CF
3. Harper, RF
4. McCutchen, LF
5. Realmuto, C
6. Hoskins, 1B
7. Gregorius, SS
8. Bohm, 3B