We’ve all done it.
At some point in over the last three seasons, it’s been natural to wonder if the Bryce Harper experience was worth it for the Phillies. When a team is .500 before a $330M star arrives and .500 for the better part of three years with that star, it’s a fair question to wonder privately or aloud on WIP.
Would Harper ever carry the Phillies into the playoffs? Could we see a NL MVP-caliber season again, or were his best days behind him? Would back issues put him on the shelf, robbing one of the game’s best power hitters of one of his biggest assets on the diamond? Would Harper eventually get tired of a losing franchise and beg out like Alex Rodriguez did in Texas two decades ago?
Some of those questions still needed to be answered. Time will tell. But here’s what we know now as the red-hot Phillies get set to welcome the Mets to Citizens Bank Park with first place on the line in the NL East: Harper is once again a legitimate NL MVP candidate.
A quick disclaimer before some Harper hype commences: The Phillies star is now in this discussion because injuries have knocked out the favorites: Mets’ Jacob deGrom, Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. and Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. All three were having better seasons than Harper, but durability and on-field value go hand-in-hand. Harper has raced (or is on the verge of racing) past those three great players because he’s posted.
Entering play on August 6, Harper owns a .305/.417/.563 slash line. That’s good for a 166 OPS+, meaning Harper has been 66 percent better than league average. It’s an outstanding number. To put it into context, Mike Schmidt only reached an OPS+ of 166 twice in his amazing career. Ryan Howard did it once (167 OPS+ in 2006) in his MVP season. When you factor in how the rest of the league is hitting, Harper’s ability to get on base and slug is on par with Howard’s 2006 campaign.
But it’s been a strange Harper season, potentially extinguishing some of the hype MVP’s typically get in their hometown. Harper started off red hot, but then was hit in the face with a pitch in St. Louis in late April. Then came a bad May, slump at the plate, and awful body language on the field. Add in random nights in which a balky back acted up, moments of not hustling out of the box and a small RBI total (which was part Harper’s fault and part on his teammates), and it wasn’t hard to understand why one of baseball’s biggest faces missed out on another All-Star Game.
Harper has now awoken, just in time for the Phillies to seize a chance to win the NL East.
Over the last month, Harper is hitting .387/.509/.688. He’s walked 23 times and only struck out 15. We’re talking about a player with more extra-base hits than strikeouts in this stretch, an OPS of nearly 1.200, and a string of incredible plate appearances stacked on top of each other. But the most important part of it all: 17 wins in 27 games for the Phillies. Harper’s production is leading to wins.
We already knew Harper was an outstanding slugger. He gets on base. You won’t find many players in MLB history that produced more before their 29th birthday. There’s a reason Harper became the face of baseball once upon a time.
Now we get to find out something new about Harper: Is he a winner? The Phillies have a chance to change the feeling this city has had about them for years. The underachiever label could disappear with a big pennant chase. October baseball could return to Citizens Bank Park.
It’s going to be up to Harper to lead them there. That means posting as much as possible, hustling, playing sound defense, knocking in runs late in games and continuing to hit at a blistering pace. If he does, a second career NL MVP is likely in play. But more even importantly: The chance to justify the hype and the contract he was handed three years ago.
Harper is a heck of a player. He’s having an excellent offensive season. Let’s appreciate it while it lasts, and hope there’s one more gear left for the most important games of the season.