Bryce Harper changed the state of the Phillies franchise when decided to sign in Philadelphia prior to the 2019 season.
Just over three calendar years later, Harper’s play has changed the calculus for the franchise once again.
When Harper first arrived, he gave the Phillies a face. His presence signaled the end of a rebuild. His contract and commitment to the franchise gave ownership a star to market and a building block to create an image around.
But that version of Harper was a very good player.
The version we’re watching now is a truly special, all-time great offensive player. Harper has leveled up, and become the kind of offensive force teams dream of having in their lineup. For the Phillies, it’s a blessing and a possible curse. Harper’s ascension to this level changes how business must be done, and should increase the urgency on team president Dave Dombrowski before the trade deadline. The future can’t matter as much when the present includes a hitter as dominant as Harper.
Prior to signing with the Phillies, Harper was on the early track to the Hall of Fame. His numbers were excellent. He owned an MVP from a historic age-22 season in Washington. But for as good as Harper was, it was tough to know how good he’d be on a year-to-year basis. Harper seemed to alternate great years with solid or good seasons (by his standards), and couldn’t sustain all-time performance. Perhaps it was due to injuries. Maybe it was the weight of expectations with the Nationals. It could have been a case of us expecting too much from a very good, but not all-time special player.
Whatever it was, those days are gone.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Harper has gone to an elite level. Look at these numbers over his last 250 games.
BA: .300
OBP: .413
SLG: .604
OPS: 1.017
OPS+: 176
HR: 63
RBI: 162
R: 184
Of all the outstanding numbers, it’s Harper’s adjusted OPS (a stat that normalizes OPS for park and league factors, with 100 being “average”) that stands out the most. Through Harper’s first eight seasons (2012-2019), his OPS+ sat at 137. That was really good. It was on par with past players like Will Clark, Daryl Strawberry and Carlos Delgado. But the sustained three-year run of 176 is otherworldly. It’s in the Mickey Mantle and Lou Gehrig career range. It’s the kind of offense that doesn’t come around very often, and usually doesn’t stay for long unless the hitter is all-time good.
Over the last calendar year, the numbers are even more ridiculous.
BA: .319
OBP: 415
SLG: .656
HR: 42
RBI: 114
R: 115
WAR: 7.5 (leads MLB)
We’re trending toward that being Harper’s reality—for now.
Harper is dealing with a tear in his right elbow. He’s had recurring back issues for years. His swing is violent. His prime (which we are most definitely witnessing right now) is even better than I thought it could be when pounding the table every night on WIP in the winter of 2018-19 about Harper and why the Phillies had to land him. But this prime will not last forever.
The Phillies have resurrected their season, and now have legitimate hope at a true run toward October. Harper is a huge part of that, even if he can’t play the field and is limited to designated hitter duty. Harper’s long-term contract gives the Phillies a yearly crutch, and one that has to be ignored when upgrades are available. Just because Harper is here for the long term doesn’t mean the Phillies can be ultra patient with chances at making an October run.
For the first time in years, the farm system could be on the verge of turning into something close to decent. Lakewood has a bevy of arms with real potential, and catcher Logan O’Hoppe has become a legitimate prospect. In a perfect world, the Phillies can land help in the bullpen (and whatever other area of need pops up between now and early August) without touching their top prospects. But this isn’t a perfect world, and the Phillies are far from a perfect team.
Urgency didn’t seem to be a word anyone in the Phillies organization could spell until recently. I have to imagine Dombrowski’s presence changes that. Going over the luxury tax was a nice step. Finally moving on from Joe Girardi was a positive (and much needed) sign of it. Now, recognizing Harper’s rise to this level of hitter has to be next.
The Phillies signed a unique free agent that checked every box at the time. Somehow, he turned out to be an even better slugger than any reasonable fan could have expected. Now the Phillies owe it to themselves and this city not to waste it.