In David Montgomery, the Lions believe they have a more explosive version of Jamaal Williams, their leading rusher from last season. As much as they were hoping to bring Williams back, they were thrilled to land Montgomery, who's two years younger and a former division foe.
ESPN's Bill Barnwell isn't so high on the move. In fact, in his annual ranking of the best offensive skill groups in the NFL, he praised the Lions' addition of Jahmyr Gibbs but deemed Montgomery "a downgrade" from Williams:
Gibbs should have an immediate role in the offense and eventually take away the primary job from free agent addition David Montgomery, who was ordinary with the Bears. Gibbs is likely an upgrade on traded back D'Andre Swift, but Montgomery is a downgrade from Jamaal Williams, who was much closer to a league-average back over the past two seasons.
Barnwell, who ranked the Lions' playmakers No. 16 in the NFL, also said the Bears "upgraded" by replacing Montgomery with D'Onta Foreman, citing Montgomery's mark of minus-0.3 rushing yards over expected per carry last season.
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Foreman aside, is Montgomery really a downgrade from Williams? Even Barnwell admitted that Williams' 17 touchdowns last season -- 13 of them from within the two-yard line -- look "like an obvious historical outlier." And where Williams had ample time and space to operate behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines for his two seasons in Detroit, Montgomery often had very little in Chicago.
The numbers bear this out. Williams averaged 2.5 and 2.4 yards before contact per carry the past two years, while Montgomery averaged 1.9 and 2.0, according to Pro Football Reference. And where Williams created 1.4 and 1.7 yards after contact per carry over that stretch, Montgomery created 2.0 and 1.9. The difference lies in elusiveness: Montgomery broke 36 tackles the past two years, while Williams broke 23. Pro Football Focus credits Montgomery with forcing 84 missed tackles, to 54 for Williams.
"You salivate a little bit," Montgomery said of his new opportunity in Detroit. "You get three Pro Bowlers on an offensive line who have high expectations for themselves and me having high expectations for myself, it’ll be really good. I know myself. I’m just scratching the surface, if I’ve even done that. I have a lot of ability to do a lot of things that I haven’t showcased or I haven’t been able to showcase the last four years."
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This is no knock on Williams, who ran hard for the Lions. He became their first 1,000-yard rusher last year in a decade and 17 touchdowns is 17 touchdowns, a franchise record he'll likely hold forever. He was the heartbeat of a resurgent and will always be a fan favorite in Detroit.
But it should say something that the most Williams could get on the open market after the best season of his career was a three-year, $12 million deal (from the Saints), while Montgomery got three years and $18 million after arguably the worst season of his career. It should also say something that Montgomery's worst season came with 800 rushing yards and 4.0 yards per carry.
You could argue the Lions overpaid for Montgomery, and you might be right. In the end, $8.9 million over two years for Williams might represent better value for New Orleans than $12 million over two years for Montgomery does for Detroit, if both teams take the out in each player's contract.
But it's hard to argue that Montgomery is any kind of downgrade from Williams, when Williams averaged 4.2 yards per touch and 62.3 scrimmage yards per game the past two seasons and Montgomery averaged 4.5 yards per touch and 78.2 scrimmage yards per game.
This is much ado about nothing in June. We'll see exactly how Montgomery does or doesn't elevate Detroit's offense when the games start in September. But the Lions brought him here for a reason, believing he and Gibbs are a more dangerous duo than Williams and D'Andre Swift.
We'll just leave you with this from Jonah Jackson, one of those Pro Bowl offensive linemen Montgomery was talking about, who was recently watching some highlights of Montgomery with the rest of the Lions offense and said the way "he was just making the first guy miss in the hole was nuts, especially for a guy who is that sturdy and that broad."
"We hadn't seen much of D-Mo and it was like, 'Wow,'" Jackson said.
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