Two months ago today, the Red Wings entered a gauntlet of games that would define their season -- and perhaps color their future. Fighting to keep up in the playoff race, they traveled to Minnesota for the first of seven straight showdowns with teams near the front of the pack. They emerged battered and bruised with four out of a possible 14 points. For the Wings, the race was over.
That dispiriting stretch was the start of a slide in which Detroit has won six of 24 games, endured two six-game losing skids and hemorrhaged goals in unprecedented fashion. (Somehow, giving up 10 to Toronto is only their third most embarrassing submission in this span.) And the price might be -- and probably should be -- Jeff Blashill's to pay.
The NHL's second longest-tenured head coach has landed squarely on the well-it's-gotta-be-warm-seat-right?, though you can never be too sure with GM Steve Yzerman. He has retained Blashill after much worse in the past. At least in terms of points percentage, the Wings have improved each of the last two seasons, if marginally so in this one. They aren't a coaching change away from suddenly vaulting into contention in a loaded Eastern Conference.
But the regression in the past two months is severe enough to call Blashill into question. Would a coaching change at least fix some of Detroit's glaring defensive issues? This might be the Wings' last chance to make a statement on behalf of Blashill, who's guiding his team back into the gauntlet starting Thursday in Carolina.
The Red Wings' next six opponents, all of them Cup Contenders, comprise seven of the top teams in the East: Hurricanes (2nd), Rangers (3rd), Panthers (1st), Lightning (5th), Panthers, Penguins (7th). Four of these games come on the road.
"You want to play right against every team," Blashill said Wednesday. "You want to play the right way every night. But certainly with the stretch we have coming, we better be good defensively, we better be cleaner with the puck, we better get the puck out of our zone, specifically (on Thursday). If you spend extended shifts in your zone, you’re in trouble."
The Red Wings know the feeling well. They've been in trouble for most of the past two months, and really for most of the season. The collapse of their defensive structure is real, and probably the strongest argument for moving on from Blashill. Whatever tight-checking identity they formed last season has been lost. The Red Wings -- the Detroit Red Wings -- have given up an NHL-worst 3.82 goals per game, tied for the most this century with the 1999-00 expansion Atlanta Thrashers, one of the worst teams in NHL history.
So is this it? We'll see. If nothing else, Blashill and the Red Wings have an opportunity. If they come out of this stretch, which concludes next Saturday with a nationally-televised matinee against the Penguins, with a few wins and their defensive integrity intact, maybe Yzerman will stick with his head coach for another season. (Who knows -- maybe he's already made up his mind.) But if they get dragged up and down the ice again, if they yield more than five goals per game like they did in that last stretch, Yzerman might be forced to pull the plug.
There are jobs potentially at stake here beyond Blashill's. The Red Wings have a number of young players in the lineup who might be out of the lineup next year, some of whom need new contracts this summer. Beginning with Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond, you can arguably count on one hand how many players this season have solidified their future in Detroit. Jakub Vrana, Tyler Bertuzzi and Michael Rasmussen might force you to use two.
"It’s a good litmus test for all of (our players)," said Blashill. "But especially if a line like Larkin’s line is struggling, then other people have to step up. It can’t just be on one line. So it certainly tests these younger players to see if they’re ready to be impactful players on good teams. And to do that, you gotta beat good teams.
"So we’ll see. It’s an every-night league. I thought some of our young guys were good for a couple of games, then some of them weren't as good. We gotta make sure we’re good every single night, and certainly we’re going to get tested."
That goes for all of them, coach included.