1. Was Jackson Jobe at third overall a reach for the Tigers?
Hardly. Pitchers represent high risk, regardless of the level, and that's especially true with high schoolers in the MLB Draft. But Jobe is an exception. Rarely do you see a pitcher who fits such a complete profile for high projection. It’s more than the measurables, such as velocity and spin rate, which are on the very high end for Jobe. It’s also about the perfect size-athleticism combination, which should allow for consistent repeatability of his delivery. That means command of the ball. Jobe is free and easy with his motion and the ball just explodes from his hand. His upside is obvious.
2. Did the Tigers blow it by passing on shortstop Marcelo Mayer?
Time will tell. If you think that is avoiding the question, it isn’t. The MLB Draft isn’t like the NFL Draft. You don’t remotely know if you took the right player until three or four years down the road. In the NFL, you know for sure after that same time period. Also, selecting for position of need is simply stupid in the MLB Draft. Mayer (fourth by Boston) and Jordan Lawler (sixth by Arizona) are refined for their age and outstanding SS prospects, but not particularly athletic given the early draft slot. Jobe is much more athletically gifted for his position. So is North Carolina high school shortstop Khalil Watson, who was a steal for Derek Jeter and the Marlins at 16th overall. In my opinion, Jobe and Watson have the highest ceilings in this draft.
3. What about Texas right-hander Ty Madden, taken by the Tigers 32nd overall?
I watched Madden’s big showdown in the College World Series vs. Mississippi State’s Will Bednar, who was taken 14th overall by the Giants. Madden gave up two runs in the fourth inning, but otherwise stymied the eventual national champs in a 2-1 loss. He fanned 10 in seven innings. He was the best pitcher in the Big 12. Madden has a mid-to-high 90's fastball and a very good hard slider. I didn’t see much of a changeup that game, nor did hitters react as if he has a high spin rate on fastballs up in the zone. Perhaps that's why he dropped this far after being projected to go sooner. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if Madden develops into an ideal power arm out of the bullpen. Seems like his likely MLB role.
4. Since the Tigers didn’t draft a shortstop, does that mean they must sign one of the big-name free agents on the market this winter?
It depends on which player and the cost. The Tigers are far from a big-money shortstop suddenly turning them into serious contenders. But it is a glutted market, and that combined with uncertainty about the labor agreement (it expires Dec. 1) could make some shorter-term deals more viable for solid vets such as Trevor Story (Colorado) and Marcus Semien (Toronto), whose replacements are being groomed. Age is a factor for both. Story will be 29 next season, and Semien 31 in September. Story’s OPS is more than 200 points lower on the road than at home at Coors Field. Houston’s Carlos Correa is young and an outstanding player, but will be seeking a $300 million-plus deal. It’s difficult to see how that would equate to value of contract for the Tigers given their current roster and time frame for prospects.
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5. What about the 39th overall pick and other selections today?
Alex Mooney is a terrific shortstop from Orchard Lake Mary’s High School, who remains on the board. Yet, as the slot money goes down, it becomes more likely he will go to Duke. A college shortstop who is especially impressive with the glove is Jose Torres from North Carolina State. He started to sting the ball this spring and stood out during the postseason.