The Tigers were supposed to be this year's Orioles, a team that emerged from a rebuild and pushed for the playoffs. Instead they're an uglier version of the Rangers, a team that spent big and fell flat. Where they go next remains to be seen.
One thing is clear as the Tigers and owner Chris Ilitch embark on their search for a new general manager after firing Al Avila earlier this month: "We have to get more modern and more advanced when it comes to a lot of different areas, including the field," A.J. Hinch said this week on the Stoney & Jansen Show.
Less clear: Are the Tigers still rebuilding? Their 100-loss pace this season would say yes. Their free agency splurge last winter and fallow farm system would say otherwise. The outlook is made murkier by the fact that two of the former prospects who inspired so much hope, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, have been erased from the present picture due to elbow injuries. The rebuild needs a reset, which might mean more pain before the promised gain.
Do the Tigers have to take another step back to eventually take two steps forward?
"I don’t think so," said Hinch. "I think we have to be realistic of where we’re at, and the injuries are probably even a bigger issue than the changes that are about to come. But you don’t have to concede to another stressful season just because we’ve had a miserable season to date. It can change pretty quickly. There’s a couple key players on this team that can take a step forward and just get back to their career norms and you’d look at this team a little differently. You get your pitching healthy, regardless of when it is, you’ll look at this team a little differently. Ironically, we complain about the pitching and the injuries, but we’re pretty good (in that area) and we have a bullpen that can win.
"You’d be surprised at what can happen. San Francisco’s done it. You see what Cleveland has done in a quick, short period of time when the world was coming to an end and they’re trading (Francisco) Lindor and they’re trading (Mike) Clevinger, and now they’re kind of the class of the division."
The Giants are an interesting comparison for the Tigers. Both teams reached a crossroads in 2017 after long runs of contention. The Tigers opted to tear it all down and start over. The Giants stuck with their core and were rewarded with a surprising division title last season, but they've slipped back into mediocrity a year later. Like the Tigers, they face an uncertain path forward.
Cleveland, meanwhile, continues to be the savviest team in the AL Central. Last year marked its first losing season in nine years and still came with 80 wins and a second-place finish in the division. It also saw the Guardians ditch their All-Star shortstop a year after ditching one of their best starting pitchers, cost-conscious trades that also brought back prospects/players who are now key contributors on a team that looks bound for the playoffs. The Guardians, who also boast an elite farm system without having subjected themselves to several seasons of misery, basically did in two years what the Tigers have been trying to do for six.
"I think we can enhance the organization in general, but I’ve gotta wait to see the vision of the GM," said Hinch, who has declared he has no interest in the GM job himself. "It’s his vision for the organization and I’m certainly going to weigh in and tell him where we’ve been and where we’re at and what I think, and hopefully we’re a partnership for years to come to try to build this the right way.
"I emphasize the point of shared vision. We need to figure out from different perspectives where we’re at.
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The Tigers need to sharpen an analytics department that still lags behind the best in the biz. This should help revive players like Javier Baez and Jonathan Schoop who have lost themselves at the plate as part of a historically inept offense. They need Hinch to look hard at his coaching staff. They need to look even harder at their own scouting philosophies. They need to mine more -- much more -- talent in Latin America. They need to develop their talent within, namely Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. They need a forward-thinking leader who can see this through, who can take the Tigers into the future once and for all.
"It’s an opportunity to inject some energy into the organization and change the trajectory," said Hinch.
Hinch is right: the Tigers' fortunes can change quickly. But only with the right people in place, starting with the voice at the top.