As Colt Keith continues to crush the ball in Double-A, the Tigers continue to slow-play their top hitting prospect -- and not just because of a recent bout of sore arm that cost him three games.
Keith, 21, means too much to the Tigers' future to jeopardize his growth in the name of the present. That is, he won't be rushed to Detroit to save a sinking big-league ship and he will almost assuredly spend a healthy chunk of time at Triple-A Toledo in between.
"You gotta be careful answering your problems in the big leagues with the hottest topic in the minor leagues until their development is there," A.J. Hinch said Wednesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "We’re being disciplined with those guys."
A promotion is on the horizon for Keith, who returned to action Thursday night and promptly hit his 13th homer of the season -- and his third in his past three games. He's been one of the best hitters across minor league baseball this year, leading all of Double-A in OPS (1.015) and wRC+ (169). Those are big-boy numbers, worthy of a reward.
Just last week, he rocketed up to No. 30 in Baseball America's top prospect rankings: "He’s the Tigers’ most promising and polished minor league hitter, and isn’t all that far away from being ready to help in Detroit."
Before Keith goes anywhere, the Tigers need to feel good about his health. His recent absence is slightly worrisome for the fact that he also sat for two games late last month and missed all of last summer with an injury to his right shoulder. Whether the arm issue is related remains to be seen. Keith was the designated hitter on Thursday.
In a recent interview with the Detroit News, Tigers VP of player development Ryan Garko said one of the aims for Keith this year was to "stay healthy for a full season." So there's that.
There's also the fact that Garko and Tigers new president of baseball ops Scott Harris are of no mind to fast-track a hitter like Keith through the system at the risk of derailing him. As Hinch pointed out, "I take everybody back to last year with Tork and Greene: we were all excited to get them up here and it just wasn't a smooth ride."
Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene had defined positions, at least. The Tigers are still figuring out where Keith, much like Justyn-Henry Malloy ahead of him, fits in the field. Drafted as a high-school third baseman in 2020, Keith has also spent time at second this season and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get some reps in the outfield. The Tigers would prefer to develop more than a designated hitter.
In Detroit, the Tigers are obviously aching for more bats. They've scored the fewest runs in the majors for the second year in a row. They especially miss the left-handed bats of Greene, who's likely out for another month with a leg injury, and Austin Meadows, who's out indefinitely due to anxiety. Keith hits left-handed.
But when asked about a direct promotion from Double-A to Detroit, Hinch said, "It’s not ideal, obviously, because there’s just things that you learn along the way." Things that can only be learned through experience, like "the way you’re being pitched by a veteran coming down from the big leagues versus the hot prospect trying to throw 98 every pitch in Double-A."
"It’s just different. There’s a leap to Triple-A, let alone to the big leagues," said Hinch. "I don’t know what the overall plan is exactly. That’s obviously (up to) Scott and Gark and we talk about it all the time. I think Colt has done a good job of trying to learn a couple different positions, he’s DH-ing a little bit, he’s continued to hit, which is good.
"If a new challenge is ahead of him, again, I’m not making the decision, but I would assume it would be the next level more than it would be a quantum leap."
Keith has played barely a season's worth of games (165) in the minors, just 51 in Double-A. Greene, also drafted out of high school, had played 124 games in Double-A and Triple-A alone before he made his big-league debut last season -- and still had a rough go of it once he did. Greene was drafted fifth overall; Keith was a fifth-rounder.
"We’re going to be very patient and deliberate with our development," Garko said.
"I love what Colt Keith is doing in Double-A," said Hinch -- but he won't yet solve the Tigers' problems in Detroit. The Tigers would only be creating problems for their most valuable prospect. A quantum leap is fun to envision for Keith. A jump to Toledo is much more realistic.
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