If 2021 began like 2019 for Matthew Boyd, so is it beginning to unravel. Not that Boyd is panicking after four pedestrian starts, not that four pedestrian starts erase six good ones. The rest of this season doesn't have to be like the rest of 2019 for Boyd, when a sparkling ERA through May lost its shine by the end of September. A great start can yield a great finish.
But it's on Boyd to make the adjustments. It's on Boyd to put his recent struggles behind him, before he's the one trying to catch up.
"I don’t know if struggles is fair to him," A.J. Hinch said Tuesday after Boyd allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings in the Tigers' win over the Brewers. "He's not as dominant as he was to begin with. I think he’s been a confident pitcher. He hasn’t been perfectly sharp, but he doesn’t have to be perfectly sharp for an entire first half, let alone an entire season."
Struggles, stumbles, scuffles, call them what you want. Fact is, Boyd has allowed at least four runs in each of his last four starts -- after allowing three or fewer in each of his first seven. His ERA over that stretch is 7.84. His walk rate has more than doubled. Maybe most troubling, the homers are back. Boyd gave up three on Tuesday, including two to slap hitter Kolten Wong, making it five in his last four starts -- after surrendering one in his first seven.
"The only hits I gave up after the three homers were a broken-bat single and a fastball that I missed on," said Boyd, who gave up the most bombs in baseball from 2019-20. "All in all, it was there. I don’t want to sit here and say it was good, but there's stuff to build off of. It wasn’t a train-wreck or anything."
No, but things are slowly sliding off the rails. Before 2021 becomes 2019, before his climbing ERA -- now a shade under 4.00 -- climbs any higher, Boyd has to bear down. He missed a start in May due to knee tendinitis, but by all accounts he's healthy after injuries sabotaged his 2020 campaign. The culprits lately are the same as they were two years ago: walks and homers.
Boyd is the purported ace of Detroit's staff, a staff that finally has real potential with the vet at his best. That's the difference from 2019. The future is now. So forget his trade value, which is a topic Al Avila and the Tigers aren't inclined to broach. What matters in 2021 is Boyd leading the way for a rotation that's starting to turn promise into production. That's why he's here.
The encouraging part? It's not like Boyd is suddenly getting tagged. His hard-hit rate has remained steady throughout the season. And while his strike-throwing has dipped of late, he's still pounding the zone. "We’re still getting ahead in the count, and outside of a couple balls tonight we’re getting the contact we want," he said.
Of course, there are other ways to measure this. Boyd has yielded almost twice as many balls with an exit velocity of 100+ mph in his last four starts, which is the biggest reason his batting average against has jumped in this span from .203 to .291. He's gotten away from his fastball and been punished with his off-speed. Wong got him twice on a slider, and Tyrone Taylor took him deep on a changeup.
"I think his pitch selection tonight was a little different than it’s been when he’s been a little sharper, but the other side is game-planning against him and they’re going to counter punch on some of the things he’s doing," said Hinch. "We’re seeing that with some of the early-count swings the last couple starts. He’ll have a few things up his sleeve for his next start against Seattle."
This isn't a crisis for Boyd, it's not a crossroads. The calendar just turned to June. And the upshot of the stronger arms around him is that he doesn't have to shoulder as much of the load. In the Tigers' best future, Boyd projects as a No. 3 starter. To pretend otherwise is to cling to the first two months of 2019 or the first month of 2021. But we know Boyd is better than the last few weeks, and he knows better than to panic.
"I know what I’m going to do moving forward, just stay the course and continue," he said. "There’s little things to adjust, like getting in the zone 0-2, being a little more aggressive with two strikes, which I will do. But all in all I’m not gonna go home and try to change anything."
That's fine, so long as he can change a story that feels eerily familiar, so long as he can prove this rut isn't the rest of the road.