As the clock ticks toward his first trade deadline in charge of the Tigers, Scott Harris has significant work to do.
Pitchers Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez remain two of the most appealing arms on the market -- and the Tigers "are definitely trading them," according to USA Today. It’s just a matter of "which team blinks first with their high price tag." Relievers Jason Foley, Alex Lange and Jose Cisnero could be on the move as well. And there's been continued interest in outfielder Kerry Carpenter, according to MLB.com. By 6 p.m. on August 1, Harris has an opportunity to bolster the Tigers' brightening future.
"This is where we really get some insight into how Scott plans to guide this team through the next chapter of its growth," MLB insider John Morosi said Monday on 97.1 The Ticket. "The Tigers do expect this to be their last deadline as a seller for a while. I think they believe that by this time next year they’re going to be in a much different place, because they are getting better and the pitching is getting healthier and the overall picture is improving.
"But to help this process, you need to make sure that you get some value for Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez, more than likely."
Lorenzen, the 31-year-old All-Star in the midst of a breakout season, is a near-lock to get traded. He's a free-agent-to-be with a 3.58 ERA in 18 starts. With starters like Max Scherzer, Lucas Gioloti, Jordan Montgomery and potentially Blake Snell off the market, "there are those who believe that (Lorenzen) is the best available of the pure rental pitchers out there," Morosi said.
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The Tigers could trade him with a reliever like Cisnero to increase their return. The White Sox packaged Giolito with reliever Reynaldo Lopez to net one of the top catching prospects in baseball from the Angels, and they dealt Lance Lynn with Joe Kelly to land two well-regarded pitching prospects from the Dodgers. The Cardinals also attached Montgomery to reliever Chris Stratton to get three solid prospects from the Rangers.
While Cisnero is likely to be traded as a rental, Foley and Lange, both 27, are under team control for several more years and perhaps more likely to stay put. The Tigers are 45-50 this season since a 2-9 start, in a division where the first-place Twins are 54-53.
"If we were talking a year ago, I would say it’s a more clear-cut case to trade them both," Morosi said. "But Foley and Lange are under control for next year and the Tigers believe they’re going to be better next year -- and not just better, but a potential buyer. Because if you look at this division, the Twins are .500 and still in first place. This is a division that is eminently winnable if you can string together some successful months of baseball, and I don’t see that changing between now and a year from now."
This outlook also colors any trade discussion about Rodriguez. The opt-out in his contract after this season, which he's almost certain to exercise barring an injury down the stretch, "may make it difficult for the Tigers to get full value back," Morosi said. Interested teams will view him as a two-month rental, not a frontline starter for three-plus years. If the Tigers still view him as the latter, Morosi said it's possible that the two sides re-negotiate his deal to keep the 30-year-old lefty in Detroit beyond this season.
"It would potentially impact the overall quality of how the younger pitchers are performing if, in one day, both E-Rod and Lorenzen go. So while the dynamics of the deadline would suggest trade them both, I’m not so sure," Morosi said. "I think Lorenzen is an obvious trade and I think E-Rod is maybe someone you look at and consider ways you can keep him around beyond the end of this season."
Rodriguez, who has a career-low 2.95 ERA in 15 starts, has expressed an interest in staying with the Tigers, but he would need significant incentive to eschew free agency.
"If there were to be a deal along those lines, there would have to be added value, added money, added no-trade clause to bring value to the player. E-Rod’s not just going to say, ‘Yep, I’ll stay and opt in,’ and have that be the end of it. He’s going to have to get something financially or something along the lines of a no-trade clause to be of value on his side. I do think it’s possible, I have not heard that imminently happening," Morosi said.
Morosi also touched on the reportedly 'robust interest' in Carpenter, who's enjoying a breakout season in the bigs aside from a recent cold spell. While a lot of teams have called about Carpenter, Morosi said the Tigers aren't going to trade him "unless they get back some right-now offense and some future value, too." Carpenter, 25, is a potential mainstay in Detroit's lineup with Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, both of whom are coming into their own. Matt Vierling looks like a good find, too.
"The bar is and would be very high for the Tigers to consider moving him. I don’t think he’s going to get moved, but teams have called and I think it’s affirming how there are some very valuable players on this roster that I expect to actually stay put and be part of a pretty compelling and contending Tigers team a year from now," Morosi said.
That includes arguably the least valuable everyday player on the roster, Javy Baez. Asked if Harris could unload Baez, who has a .671 OPS since signing a six-year, $140 million contract with the Tigers ahead of last season and a .594 OPS that ranks second to last in the majors this season, by paying off some of his salary in a trade, Morosi said, "I don’t expect that to happen."
"Because when you look at the Tigers’ payroll — and I realize Javy has been a disappointment, we all realize what’s gone on there — I don’t think that Scott Harris right now know would diminish the quality of the return by making it a financial type of move," Morosi said. "In other words, he’s going to focus on trading the guys that are going to bring back a lot of value as opposed to with Javy, it’s just a financial move.
"Without Miguel (Cabrera's) contract on the books for next year, their payroll is in a pretty good spot, so I’d be really surprised. It’s a great concept and I’m sure there would be some interest in doing it. I just don’t think that it’s the right thing for the organization right now because of their focus on bringing in young talent and honestly, how good the payroll is right now."
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