Five years ago this summer, Al Avila and the Tigers were headed for a firesale.
Justin Verlander would be gone. J.D. Martinez would be gone. Justin Upton would be gone. So would Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. After chasing titles for the previous decade, the Tigers dove head first into a rebuild in the span of a month.
Which pretty much everyone saw coming. No one saw it playing out like this.
The Tigers wound up losing 98 games in 2017. They are on pace to lose 99 in 2022. Baseball rebuilds are grueling, but the Tigers have taken the pain to the extreme. This season has been the punch to the gut, or the kick in the -- you know. Just as the club was regaining relevance, it has plunged back into the abyss.
Crowds are sparse again at Comerica Park. Roars are rare. The fervor for the Tigers has faded, which is a shame in a town that loves baseball. You could hear the belief in this team in a raucous Opening Day win over the White Sox. You can see the apathy in all the empty seats.
The park perked up Tuesday night for the MLB debut of Kody Clemens. Like it was once perked up for Christin Stewart, for Isaac Paredes, for Dawel Lugo. Maybe Clemens would be different. Maybe the hype would be real. Maybe the son of The Rocket would be the prospect to launch the Tigers into the future.
The failure, so far, of the Tigers season owes to a lineup full of slumping vets. But the failure of the Tigers rebuild owes to a lineup void of rising stars, which demanded the addition of those vets in the first place. Clemens, a third-round pick of the Tigers in 2018, is the 19th position player to make his MLB debut for Detroit in the past five seasons.
The failure, so far, of the rebuild is this: the first 18 have produced negative-8.4 bWAR for the Tigers. Only three have made a quantifiably positive impact: Akil Baddoo, a shooting star who's lost his shine, Victor Reyes, a 27-year-old utility outfielder, and Jake Rogers, a good defensive catcher recovering from Tommy John.
That group of 18, compiled below, includes seven homegrown players and five first-round picks, Moreover, it includes four of the six eligible position players acquired in the Verlander, Martinez and Wilson/Avila deals, the fuel for the future that wasn't. Together, Rogers and Daz Cameron (Verlander), Lugo and Sergio Alcantara (Martinez) and Paredes (Avila/Wilson) have produced negative-2.1 bWAR for the Tigers.
To be fair: the Avila/Wilson trade also netted the Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who made his MLB debut with the Cubs and has been worth 6.7 bWAR for Detroit. And Paredes was flipped for Austin Meadows, the Tigers' best hitter this season until he landed on the injured list with vertigo. On the other hand, the centerpiece of the Verlander return, pitcher Franklin Perez, failed to make it past A-ball with the Tigers and was released this spring after another shoulder injury (the club did re-sign him to a minor league deal).
After that comeback win on Opening Day, the Tigers dropped two of three to the defending division champs. The young White Sox trio of Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn combined for 12 RBI in the series. Tim Anderson returned for the rubber match and killed the Tigers, because of course. The White Sox lineup is full of rising stars. Their rotation also boasts some electric young arms. Chicago endured a brutal rebuild of its own, including seven straight losing seasons from 2013-19, and has returned to contention on the other side.
Its current core of position players, save Jose Abreu, began arriving in 2016 with the debut of Anderson. 18 position position players made their MLB debuts for Chicago over the next five seasons; they have produced 29.9 bWAR for the White Sox. Most of that value stems from Anderson and Robert, the former a first-round pick, the latter an international free agent. The White Sox have found their franchise players.
Chicago's group of 18, which includes 10 homegrown players and three first-round picks, is compiled below. It notably does not include Yoan Moncada (12.8 bWAR for the White Sox), acquired in the Chris Sale trade in 2016 after he had debuted for the Red Sox -- the same trade that netted the White Sox pitcher Michael Kopech (3.3 bWAR). It does include Eloy Jimenez, acquired in the Jose Quintana trade in 2017 -- the same trade that netted the White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease (4.0 bWAR). When Chicago sold, it also got richer.
The Tigers are done selling. They might not be done picking near the top of the draft, but any draft picks at this point are years away from contributing in Detroit. In season six of the rebuild, the Tigers have two position players with superstar potential. The clock has started on one. It's about to start on the other. If either Spencer Torkelson or Riley Greene comes up short, Detroit is in serious trouble. Barring a bold trade or another wave of free agent signings by a GM who hasn't fared well in either department, the Tigers' future rests on a 21-year-old outfielder and a 22-year-old first baseman.
Torkelson has every chance to be an elite big-league slugger; his first two months in the majors don't change that. And Greene has every chance to be a true MVP candidate in center field; he darn near looked like one in spring training. He's due back from a foot injury this month. Both players deserve plenty of time to prove themselves. Anderson debuted at the age of 23 and was worth 2.0 bWAR over his first two seasons; he's been worth 16.9 bWAR in in five seasons since.
The Tigers have done well to develop some arms, especially in the rotation. Eight starters have made their MLB debuts for Detroit over the past five seasons, producing 10.5 bWAR for the Tigers. That constitutes the success of the rebuild, though injuries are starting to take their toll. After a lesser firesale at the 2019 trade deadline deepened Detroit's pool of young pitchers, Avila said the Tigers were poised to start trading arms for bats.
“Absolutely," he said. "In fact, we've kicked some of those ideas around already. That is a very viable option and a possibility. Having a good young stable of pitchers is obviously a good place to be, because you can keep the guys you want for your rotation and bullpen, and then make your team better with those kind of trades moving forward. Those are good options to have."
He added, "There’s a bigger shortage of starting pitching than anything else in baseball, and that for us is a strength. Hitters, they’re difficult to develop and they’re difficult to scout, so that’s a challenge for us. We feel we have some guys in the minor leagues, but at the end of the day if we have to go out there and acquire some hitters, that’s what we're going to do."
That was three years ago. The Tigers have only added pitchers since, including eight with their first 10 picks in last year's draft. When shortstop Marcelo Mayer fell in their lap at No. 3 overall, they opted for Jackson Jobe instead. Mayer is raking in the minors, but we digress. Is it crazy to suggest the Tigers start gauging the market for Jobe? Is it crazy to suggest they do the same with any pitcher in the organization not named Tarik Skubal? Heck, Skubal included?
The failure of the Tigers' rebuild can be fixed. The simplest solution involves Torkelson and Greene fulfilling their potential. We can't fully judge Detroit's future until those two show their worth. In the meantime, it might behoove Avila to invest in an insurance policy for his top two position players. Like any team, the Tigers would love to "keep the guys you want for your rotation and bullpen" and trade the ones they don't. But other teams aren't in the market for rejects. If Avila wants to "go out there and acquire some hitters," he has to take a swing.
This year's team should improve as players like Javier Baez, Jonathan Schoop and Candelario trend toward their career norms. The season isn't over. Turns out, neither is the rebuild. The Tigers have promoted prospects and added payroll and continue to lose. They have turned the corner only to turn back. They have pinned their hopes on Torkelson and Greene, which might yet work. If it doesn't, the next wave of prospects is only a handful of years away.