The MLB Playoffs are right around the corner, with this Sunday being the last day of the regular season. People will be looking to invest in a team to win the World Series and give them something to cheer for if their favorite team didn’t make the postseason (AKA me, as a White Sox and Cubs fan). A lot of people will be looking for a longshot they can back that pays out a huge amount of money for a small investment, but that is actually one of the worst strategies that you can deploy if you actually want to win money.
Sure, your longshot could hit and put you up a fortune, but the chances of that happening are extremely low, especially when you consider the kind of liability these teams present for the sportsbooks. You always have to factor in what the ideal matchup would be from the book perspective, as that is usually the most likely outcome. They wouldn’t keep building casinos and hotels in Vegas if they paid out their biggest liabilities, remember that.
So, who do the books want to win the World Series? And who are they trying to avoid at all costs? According to BetMGM’s Hal Egeland, they actually prefer the chalk making it this year: "The Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies are our most-bet in terms of both tickets and money. Having said that, we actually fare pretty well on all three. We’re a relatively small loser on the Phillies. But the Dodgers and Yankees would both be positive results for us."
The Dodgers and Yankees are currently the biggest favorites in the market to come out of their respective leagues. You can get the Dodgers at +325 to win the World Series and the Yankees at +450 to go all the way. The Phillies are third, sitting at +450 as well, tied with the Yankees. One bet that you could place if you wanted a longshot wager would be the exact matchup between the Yankees and Dodgers. New York to defeat L.A. pays out 11/1, while L.A. to defeat New York nets you 9/1.
A team they are looking to avoid? The San Diego Padres, who have garnered a ton of attention over the second half of the season with their spectacular play. "The Padres would actually be our worst possible result, by a decent margin," Egeland said. "There usually tends to be a team or two that leads our liability by a decent amount, and this year, it’s the Padres.”
Two possible teams that you could invest in that are longshots, and don’t kill the sportsbook, would be the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers. The Guardians are 11/1 to win the World Series, while Milwaukee is 20/1. Neither team has gotten a lot of attention, and sometimes, that is exactly the team that you want to place a bet on.
My favorite team since the start of the season has been the Yankees, as I have said many times. I am reassured that knowing the books would be just fine with them taking home the championship crown.
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