Alex Bregman is set to make a splash in free agency, but many believe the two-time All-Star and World Series champion is more likely to return to Houston than start fresh with a new club. After a 2024 season in which he slashed .260/.315/.453 with 26 home runs and 75 RBI, Bregman remains a steady presence in the lineup. He’s also hinted he could move to second base after an offseason arm surgery, adding versatility that could make him even more appealing to certain clubs.
Odds for Bregman’s Next Team (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Astros: +380
Detroit Tigers: +650
Toronto Blue Jays: +700
Seattle Mariners: +700
New York Yankees: +750
Kansas City Royals: +800
Any Other Team: +800
New York Mets: +900
Boston Red Sox: +950
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1200
Washington Nationals: +1300
Chicago Cubs: +1300
These odds provide an interesting breakdown of the teams that could pursue Bregman, but the Astros’ position as favorites aligns with his personal connection to the team and his value to the franchise. General Manager Dana Brown’s comments at the Winter Meetings highlight Houston’s desire to bring Bregman back, emphasizing the urgency of securing a deal early.
Why Houston Is the Best Bet
Houston’s connection to Bregman extends beyond stats. As a player beloved by the Astros’ organization and the Houston community, Bregman is a cornerstone of their recent success. According to Brown, “He knows that we want him back. Scott [Boras] knows that we want him back. He loved playing here. So, hopefully, we can get it done sooner rather than later.”
The Astros are also positioned to offer a multi-year contract that could keep Bregman in Houston for the remainder of his career. Given that he’ll be 31 on Opening Day in 2025, a seven or eight-year deal would allow him to stay in Houston through his twilight years.
Best Bet: Alex Bregman to Return to the Astros (+380)
When weighing the odds and potential suitors, a return to Houston stands out as the most logical destination for Bregman. He has an established role, a deep connection to the city, and is vocal about his love for the team and its fans. The Astros, meanwhile, are committed to locking him in and retaining him as one of the faces of their franchise, and Brown’s comments suggest they want to finalize a deal quickly.
With Houston’s front office intent on bringing him back, and with Bregman’s preference for stability as he approaches the later years of his career, a re-signing with the Astros is the most sensible and valuable bet. At +380, there’s good value here given Houston’s strong incentive to make a competitive offer, coupled with Bregman’s apparent openness to staying.
Conclusion
As free agency continues, Bregman’s options may expand, but Houston’s combination of competitive advantage, loyalty, and financial flexibility makes them the favorite to keep him in Astros orange and navy. Betting on Bregman to stay in Houston allows for a balance of sentiment and strategy—a bet that capitalizes on his desire for continuity and the Astros’ vested interest in retaining one of their longest-tenured stars.
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