This series has featured nothing but total blowouts so far over the first three games. The Dodgers blew out the Mets in Game 1, the Mets blew out the Dodgers in Game 2, and the Dodgers again blew out the Mets in Game 3. Can we get a close game tonight in Game 4? That remains to be seen, but it would be nice to get an interesting game out of these two. The Mets will really want to win at least one game here at home, and going down 3-1 headed back to Los Angeles would not be ideal for them.
The Dodgers will have rookie RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto getting the start on the hill tonight. In 90 regular season innings, he generated a 3.44 xERA and 2.86 xFIP, some very impressive numbers for someone who hasn’t faced MLB competition before. He has had a mixed bag of performances in the postseason in two games, but he was fantastic in his last start, which was against the Padres in Game 5 of the NLDS. He went five innings of scoreless ball, allowing only two hits and one walk with two strikeouts. He faced the Mets one time this season way back in April, going six innings and allowing four runs on seven hits. Still, that was a long time ago, so it is hard to take a lot from that. Yamamoto has since spent a lot of time on the IL with a shoulder injury, which could have affected his performance.
On the other side, the Mets hand the ball to LHP Jose Quintana. If you have read my stuff for a while, you know I am not the biggest fan of his this season. He generated a 4.49 xERA and 4.44 xFIP in 170.1 innings during the regular season. He also owned a very low .263 BABIP and 78.2% strand rate, and everything about his pitching profile points to severe regression. He faced the Dodgers once this season, going six innings while allowing eight hits and three runs in a decent performance. However, Dodgers bats own a combined .849 OPS against him in 170+ plate appearances.
Both Yamamoto and Quintana will face offenses that are in their weaker split tonight, with the Mets better against lefties, and the Dodgers better against right-handers. I expect both managers to try and allow them to stay out there as long as possible for matchup purposes, especially Quintana against lefties like Ohtani and Freeman. Therefore, I’d look to bet some overs on their props tonight. The only under I would consider is Quinatana’s strikeouts, as the Dodgers chase rate is one of the lowest in the league against lefties. I’d play under for his Ks and over on his walks allowed prop. I’d target both over their outs recorded props at 14.5, but under at 15.5.
Taking a look at the weather, temperatures are forecasted at around 50 degrees at first pitch, with winds blowing in at around 10 mph. Both of these factors will reduce the amount of runs in this game and balls going out of the park.
Best Bets: Mets ML (+120), Under 7.5 (-130), Yamamoto Over 13.5 Outs (+100), Quintana Over 14.5 Outs (-140) or Under 15.5 Outs (-150), Quintana Over 2.5 BB's (+125)
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