No team has ever come back after starting the World Series trailing 3-0, but the New York Yankees are going to attempt it against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In fact, the only team in MLB Postseason history to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series is the 2004 Boston Red Sox. The 2020 Houston Astros came back from a 3-0 hole to force a Game 7, the only other team besides 2004 Boston to do that, but they fell short of the complete comeback. So, can the Yankees do the seemingly impossible? It’s unlikely, but they will throw everything they have at it.
Game 5 is a rematch of Game 1, with the same starting pitchers and lineup, just in New York this time. The Dodgers closed as a -125 favorite in Game 1, and now on the road, they are a +120 underdog. That seems like quite the drastic change just for a ballpark, but you also have to factor in the situation.
L.A. will have Jack Flaherty on the hill, who was fantastic in Game 1, going 5 ⅓ innings while allowing just two runs and generating six strikeouts. That start came with a week of rest off of his last NLCS start, but now, he’ll be on shorter rest. If you have been paying attention, Flaherty has been great in his first start of a series, but gets shelled in his second start. This is the most innings that he has ever pitched, and I think it is very possible that he is experiencing fatigue. If he doesn’t give his arm extended rest, he is not the same pitcher.
His fastball velocity drop is very noticeable, dipping from 93.5 to 91.4 at the end of the regular season, with his starts coming on regular rest. He also reported a hamstring issue after exiting in the sixth inning of his last start, just after Giancarlo Stanton homered off of him. I’d bet Flaherty Under 15.5 Outs and Under 4.5 Strikeouts, as his fatigue and possible hamstring issue make me think he will have a shorter stint on the hill.
Gerrit Cole will get the ball for the Yankees again, and I think he will be out there a bit longer, given the bullpen usage for New York. Manager Aaron Boone has used Tim Hill, Mark Leiter Jr. and Clay Holmes three of the past four days, and Luke Weaver worked for a second consecutive day. His high leverage arms need some rest, even though the Yankees have their backs against the wall.
Because of this, I expect Cole’s leash to be extended, and they will throw their fate behind his arm. Cole has been great against Shohei Ohtani in his career, holding him to a 4-for-23 stretch with eight strikeouts. I’d consider betting him Under 1.5 total bases, which I know is very risky because it’s Ohtani, but the matchup favors Cole. I’d also bet Cole Over 16.5 Outs, as I think Boone will hope he can be out there for six innings at least with his bullpen situation.
If you are betting solely on prices, the Dodgers hold a bit of value at +125 to close the series out. However, both MLB and the sportsbooks would like this series to continue in order to generate more revenue, so I can’t 100% advise that. I would bet the Under 8.5 however, despite the temperatures being a little warmer in New York in the mid-60s.
Best Bets: Under 8.5, Flaherty Under 15.5 Outs, Flaherty Under 4.5 Strikeouts, Cole Over 16.5 Outs, Ohtani Under 1.5 Total Bases
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