The excitement of an NBA game often starts with the first basket, and wagering on who scores it adds an extra layer of anticipation for bettors. By analyzing tip-off trends, defensive matchups, and individual player stats, we’ve identified three value-driven first-basket picks for tonight’s action. Let’s dive into why Brook Lopez, Nic Claxton, and Ivica Zubac stand out as prime candidates to strike first.
Bucks C Brook Lopez vs. Hawks (+700, FanDuel)
The Bucks win the tip 60% of the time this season, just ahead of the Hawks at 59.1%, giving neither team a clear advantage. However, Milwaukee won the tip in all three matchups last season, with Brook Lopez taking the first shot in each game.
This year, Lopez has remained a focal point in early offense, taking the first shot in 15.8% of his starts and opening the scoring in 21.1% of games—the second-highest mark on the team behind Damian Lillard. Milwaukee’s offensive structure in early possessions often favors using Lopez in pick-and-roll or post-up situations, and with Atlanta allowing opposing centers to shoot 54% from the field, Lopez is well-positioned to capitalize early again.
Nets C Nic Claxton vs. Pacers (+800 FanDuel)
Nic Claxton delivered for us with a +700 first basket cash on Monday against the Bulls, and we're backing him again today. Brooklyn has won the opening tip in five of its last six games, and the Nets have hit their first shot 55% of the time, which is a stark contrast to the Pacers, who have made just 36% of their first attempts. That number plunges to only 18% for Indiana over the last 20 days. Claxton has scored the first basket for Brooklyn in nearly 30% of his starts this season, and the center position has the highest first-basket scoring percentage on the team at 36.0%.
Clippers C Ivica Zubac vs. Timberwolves (+600, Caesars)
Zubac has controlled the opening tip in 52% of games this season, and the Clippers as a team have also converted the first bucket 52% of the time. However, over the last 20 days, that number has risen to 64%, giving them a clear advantage over the Timberwolves, who have made just 38% of their first attempts during the same period. Minnesota is also allowing opposing centers to score first 22% of the time, the highest rate for any position.
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