As the NBA season tips off, betting on the first basket is a popular way to add excitement to opening night. Based on the public bets at BetMGM, certain players are attracting the most attention. For the Knicks vs. Celtics matchup, the most popular picks are Jayson Tatum (+625), followed by Jaylen Brown (+500), Karl-Anthony Towns (+650), Jalen Brunson (+475), and Mikal Bridges (+900).
In the Timberwolves vs. Lakers game, Anthony Davis (+525) leads the first basket betting, with Anthony Edwards (+600), LeBron James (+700), Julius Randle (+650), and D'Angelo Russell (+850) rounding out the top selections.
For my top picks on who will score first, see the breakdown below. All odds are provided by BetMGM.
Celtics SF Jaylen Brown vs. Knicks (+500)
The Jaylen Brown revenge tour begins tonight. While the night is certainly going to be about raising Banner 18 in Boston, Brown is going to be on a personal mission after getting snubbed by Team USA. In case you think he’s over it, he said the following this week, “In 2028, if I have to sign to Nike to increase my likelihood of playing USA basketball, I’ll pass.” Translation: he’s still bitter and I expect him to make a statement on Opening Night.
Last season, Brown was a fantastic first basket bet. He converted 20 first baskets (22.7% of his team’s games) and took the first shot by either team in 21.6% of Boston’s games overall. All of those stats ranked far above his teammates, including Jayson Tatum (11 first baskets, 12.0% hit rate, 9.8% first shot rate). With essentially the same exact rotation heading into this season, it’s hard for me not to like him in this spot, especially with a chip on his shoulder. I do think Karl-Anthony Towns is going to win the tip against Al Horford, but that doesn’t necessarily guarantee that New York is going to score first. These +500 odds translate to a 16.67% implied probability, so I think there’s some solid value here.
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Lakers C Anthony Davis vs. Timberwolves (+525)
If you’ve followed my NBA prop picks over the years, you know that I’m never going to back AD’s full game props because I’ve been burned by him heading to the locker room too many times to count. However, I’ll gladly take a shot on him here early in the first quarter. Last season, he netted 13 first baskets (15.9% hit rate) and took the first shot of the game 17.1% of the time.
The matchup against Minnesota isn’t a negative, either. Davis won the tip all three times he played the Timberwolves last season and was active early in the game this preseason as well, scoring the first basket in two of his three games played. These +525 odds translate to a 16% implied probability and while there might not be as much perceived value as Brown’s above, I do think AD should have the benefit of winning the tip against Rudy Gobert.
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