Thursday's NBA slate offers exciting matchups and prime opportunities for player prop bets. With RJ Barrett stepping up in a shorthanded Raptors lineup, Bam Adebayo thriving in his do-it-all role for the Heat, and Domantas Sabonis poised for a dominant night on the boards against the Pelicans, there’s plenty of value to be found. Let’s dive into the top player prop picks for December 12 and break down why these stars are positioned to shine tonight.
Raptors SG RJ Barrett Over 23.5 Points vs. Heat (-125, DraftKings)
In 429 minutes with Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and Bruce Brown off the court, RJ Barrett has commanded an elite 32.4% usage rate and dropped 37 points on 15-of-20 shooting against the Heat on December 1 and 25 points on 10-of-18 shooting against Miami on November 29. If Toronto keeps this game close, it’ll be because Barrett gives them the offensive production they need. Averaging 23.6 points per game on the season, the 24-year-old former No. 3 pick will have the opportunity to showcase his game and even make an All-Star case for himself with Barnes sidelined.
Heat C Bam Adebayo Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Raptors (-125, FanDuel)
Not only do the Raptors allow the most assists per game to opposing centers (5.43), but Adebayo racked up 10 and then seven dimes on an average of 10.5 potential helpers per game in his two opportunities against them so far this season. In those two meetings, Miami’s offense flowed through Adebayo and he made an average of 63.0 passes per game, 13.5 more than any of his teammates. His 9.5 adjusted assists led his team by 4.5 over the next-highest players and there’s no reason to assume that he won’t continue to make an impact in this regard tonight. If you want to get spicy, consider his triple-double prop (he had 14, 10 and 10 against Toronto on November 29 and 13, 20 and 7 on December 1). He therefore also averaged 15.0 rebounds and 21.0 rebounding chances in those games. Overall, combining his rebound and assist potential is where I want to go.
Kings C Domantas Sabonis Over 12.5 Rebounds vs. Pelicans (-113, FanDuel)
Averaging 12.7 rebounds (4th-most in the NBA) on 22.6 potential rebounds (2nd-most), Sabonis gets the best possible matchup against a Pelicans team that has allowed an average of 17.4 rebounds per game to the opposing center position (most in the NBA). Sabonis has gone over this mark in four of his last six contests overall and should be able to dominate the offensive glass in particular. New Orleans ranks 2nd-worst with a 67.3% defensive rebound percentage.
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