Monday night’s NBA matchups bring prime prop betting opportunities with Zach LaVine, Ja Morant, and Alperen Sengun. Here’s why each player is positioned to exceed their totals in high-paced, favorable situations. Let’s dive into my top player props for the night.
Bulls SF Zach LaVine Over 19.5 Points vs. Grizzlies (-133, Caesars)
Grizzlies PG Ja Morant Over 18.5 Points vs. Bulls (-128, FanDuel)
I’m going to talk about these two props together because they’re from the same likely shootout. These teams rank 1st and 2nd in Pace (110.33 and 105.83, respectively) and the over has gone 3-0 in Grizzlies games and 2-1 in Bulls games so far as a result. This should be a back-and-forth, high-flying affair between two teams that have made pushing the tempo a part of their early identities in the new season.
LaVine has scored 27, 25 and 22 points in his first three games of the season, shooting 55.6% from the field and 47.8% from three-point range. He’s been especially deadly from three, where he’s made five, two and four long balls. The volume scorer has gone over this number seven straight times against Memphis and in 11 of his last 12 against the Grizz overall. No team in the NBA has allowed more points to the opposing small forward position than Memphis so far (33.5 per game), thus thrusting him into a fantastic spot to produce.
The Bulls have allowed opposing point guards to score 25.9 points per game, which is essentially in the middle of the pack, but this is the game environment that should suit the electric PG’s skill set perfectly. He’s put up 22, 24 and 16 points so far and has seen very conservative minutes (28, 24, 25). Nonetheless, he has been very aggressive when he’s been on the floor, shooting nine, nine and eight free throws and 12, 17 and 12 field goals. I wouldn’t be shocked if both of these guys score over 30 points in what I project to be a very high-scoring affair, well above the 233.5-point total, the 2nd-highest on the slate.
Rockets C Alperen Sengun Over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Spurs (-113, FanDuel)
In his last game on Saturday against these Spurs, Sengun was benched for the final 16 minutes of the game and finished with six points, five rebounds and two assists in 22 minutes. After the game, coach Ime Udoka said the following to reporters, “I wouldn’t say he played the best game in general… sloppy at times. The pace we were playing with, it didn’t look like he kept up with it.” In a three-point loss, benching your franchise center was a baffling decision, especially with Victor Wembanyama on the other side. In previous games against Wemby, here’s what Sengun did: 45 points, 16 rebounds, three assists (3/5/2024), 15 points, nine rebounds, four assists (12/11/2023) and 25 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists (10/27/2023). I’m going to put last game’s dud behind us and go right back to the well here in the rematch.
How valuable is this line? Last time out, his rebounds + assists prop was 14.5 in the same exact matchup. It was at 14.5 in the first two games of the season as well. What changed since then? Some coach speak and a bad outing. He went over this mark in rebounds alone in the first two games of the season with 18 and then 15 boards and has triple-double upside every time he steps on the floor. I expect him to play inspired will a desire to prove his coach wrong in the rematch.
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