The Miami Heat have a longstanding history in the postseason that includes several deep runs as of late. They’ve made the playoffs in each of the last five years, resulting in three conference championships and two NBA Finals appearances. Since the 2008-09 season, Miami has only failed to reach the postseason on three different occasions. However, despite its strong track record, I think there is value in the Heat to miss the playoffs this season at +360 for a variety of reasons.
Miami is a team that has shown it doesn’t prioritize the regular season. Each of the last two years, the Heat have found their way to a postseason series via the Play-In Tournament. They went 44-38 in 2022-23 and 46-36 in 2023-24, finishing with the 8th-best record on both occasions. Jimmy Butler has developed the persona of “Playoff Jimmy” because of how he coasts through the regular season but rises to the occasion once his team is securely in the playoffs.
That strategy has worked thus far, but with the significant lack of depth on the Heat roster this season, that tactic is bound to catch up to them. Miami lost Caleb Martin to the 76ers in the offseason and didn’t do anything to replace his production. While they retained their core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Terry Rozier, the supporting cast is now thinner.
Tyler Herro has dealt with his fair share of injuries over the last few years and wasn’t someone the Heat could rely on last year, playing in just 42 games. Rozier wasn’t his normal self after being traded to Miami midway through the season, averaging just 16.4 points with the Heat, which is his lowest scoring output since the 2018-19 season.
For as good as Butler is, he is also someone who has struggled to stay healthy over the last few seasons and seemed to be disgruntled with the organization at various points throughout the year. And aging players like Kevin Love and Josh Richardson don’t move the needle for me in terms of being difference-makers.
On top of a lackluster roster, competition has significantly increased in the Eastern Conference over the last few years. The Indiana Pacers made it to the conference finals last season and returned nearly their entire roster. The Orlando Magic are relevant again for the first time in a long time and have a ton of young, up-and-coming talent. The Celtics, Sixers, Bucks, Cavs and Knicks are all playoff-caliber teams. With more teams in contention, the margin for error becomes smaller for the Heat.
Given the combination of roster depth issues, heavy reliance on aging stars, increased competition and regression risks, a lot is going to have to go right for the Heat to continue their playoff run, which is why at +380, they are a good bet to miss the postseason.
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