The Clemson Tigers (9-3) will take on the SMU Mustangs (11-1) in the 2024 ACC Championship Game. SMU is favored by 2.5 points and the over/under is 57 points at the time of this writing. The Tigers have had their share of issues this season, and they only made it to this game because the Miami Hurricanes absolutely choked it away in their last game by losing to Syracuse. However, people know that is the case, which could make their odds valuable. SMU has enjoyed their first season as a member of the ACC, going 11-1 with their only loss coming to an incredibly lucky BYU team. Keep reading to see what bets I’m targeting for this game with a full explanation.
Best Bet #1: Clemson +2.5
If you wait, there is a decent chance that you can pick up a +3 here, which would obviously be a better number at the key of a field goal. I expect more SMU money to pour in from the public as we get closer to kickoff, which could give us that key number later in the week. I am writing this early, so the only number available now is +2.5, but patience is important in this business.
Clemson has won the ACC Championship six times since 2015, and they are used to all of the success that comes with that, and the pressure of the situation. SMU is not, which could lend an advantage to the Tigers in critical situations by having a coach that has been there before. QB Cade Klubnik has made strides this season, and even though the offense hasn’t exactly been explosive, they should be able to take advantage of a questionable Mustangs secondary that has been exposed through the air at times this year. The Tigers defense has been elite at defending the pass, ranking 27th in the nation in that category, but they could have trouble stopping SMU’s rushing attack.
The Mustangs are going to try to run as much as possible, because passing is going to be a tough task against Clemson. They should be able to get a decent amount of big gains on the ground with Brashard Smith, who averages 3.5 yards after contact and has 14 touchdowns on the year. With Clemson also ranking just 126th in Defensive Rush EPA, he could be a problem for them.
Still, I trust Dabo Swinney more in this game than I do Rhett Lashlee, and I think their experience playing in this game will lend them the edge slightly. Plus, everyone and their brother is fading Clemson here, with 88% of the early cash being on SMU -2.5. Again, I would look for a +3 later in the week, and grab that number when you can.
Best Bet #2: Under 57
This is much more of a contrarian type of play, as with everything that I just mentioned above, you would think that the Over would be a good bet here. Personally, I hate betting overs in almost any game, but especially big games with a huge handle on them. The liability on the over for sportsbooks is almost always very high, but in these championship games that are watched by millions and bet on by millions, it gets to be astronomical.
Right now over at BetMGM, a gigantic 93% of the early cash is on the over, and that figures to just get larger and larger as more public square money comes in. In fact, it is the most bet over in any championship game so far, and the liability is going to be large with the parlays that also will be included.
It’s scary considering these are two of the fastest-paced offenses in college football, but somehow, I think the under is going to get there. This is another wager where you might be able to wait and get a better line as more money backs the over later in the week.
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