If the NFL season ended right now, the New York Giants (2-10) would own the rights to the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. After moving on from Daniel Jones, the perception is that if they remain in this spot, the G-Men would draft their next QB of the future, likely Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders or Miami QB Cam Ward.
The two other 2-10 teams in the hunt are the Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Raiders would likely also pick a QB if they end up with the first selection, but Travis Hunter would probably be the pick if the Jags happen to pick first due to the presence of Trevor Lawrence. Let’s take a look at which team has the best chance to pick first, what the current odds are for each college star and figure out what the best current bet is.
Which Team Will Actually Pick First?
Heading into Week 14, New York’s remaining opponents have a .548 win percentage (13th), while the Raiders’ have an easier schedule (.433: 24th) and the Jags have the easiest of them all (.279, 32nd). The Patriots (3-10), who currently would hold the 4th pick, have the hardest remaining schedule in the entire NFL (opponents have a .708 win percentage) and will likely lose the rest of their games. At 3-9, the Browns (.607 opponent win percentage: 5th) will likely also be in the conversation, but have actually looked decent with Jameis Winston at quarterback, so they might steal a game or two down the stretch.
Overall, I think this is going to come down to the Giants or Patriots picking first and given the teams in the hunt, the safer bet is to assume that a quarterback is going to go first.
While Sanders and Ward both have thrived in pass-happy offenses, here are the current odds and betting data from BetMGM.
Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
BetMGM Odds: Open +300, Now +150
Backed by 25.5% of the tickets and 30.7% of the handle, Sanders is a popular choice in this market. With 35 passing touchdowns, 3,926 passing yards and eight interceptions, Sanders has racked up 132 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions with 14,119 yards in his college career between Jackson State and Colorado with 17 more scores on the ground. While it remains to be seen if his dad Coach Prime will join him at his landing spot in the NFL, he’ll also likely have a marketability factor that others in the class won’t have, which is important to consider. He’s the frontrunner for a reason and this is the bet I’d make now.
Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter
BetMGM Odds: Open +750, Now +250
Hunter is BetMGM’s biggest liability in this market and is backed by 30.9% of the tickets and 43.8% of the handle. Playing both offense and defense at an elite level, Hunter is going to win the Heisman Trophy and has caught 92 passes for 1,152 yards and 14 touchdowns with four interceptions as a lockdown corner on the defensive end. He grades out as a dominant star on both sides of the football, but will likely have to pick one position once he becomes a pro. Nonetheless, his versatility could be a never-before-seen asset for an NFL franchise.
However, I can only see the Patriots or Jaguars calling his name first among all the teams in the hunt for the top pick. If you think either of those teams will end up with the top pick, this is your choice. That would take the belief that the Giants are going to win another game on their schedule, though.
Miami QB Cam Ward
BetMGM Odds: Open +450, Now +750
Ward makes up the third guy on the list before a gigantic dropoff in the odds, ticket percentages and handle percentages. He’s supported by 25.5% of tickets and 21.0% of the handle. Racking up 4,123 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and seven interceptions for Miami, he’s been one of the most prolific passers and should be a Day 1 NFL starter, which will certainly be appealing for teams looking for a seasoned, productive collegiate star. However, the odds of him going above Sanders are slim, in my opinion.
The Best Bet: Shedeur Sanders
While the odds indicate that this is a three-man race, I think it’s actually a two-man race between teammates Sanders and Hunter. With that being said, it’s more likely than not that Sanders is going to be that choice due to the fact that most teams in the hunt need a franchise quarterback. In my opinion, you won’t be able to get those +150 odds for Sanders for too much longer, so act now.
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