The College Football Playoffs have been a mix of boring blowouts and thrilling moments to this point, but one thing that we have all enjoyed here at BetQL is the amount of cash we have been winning this season from the model. It just continues to churn out winners week after week, and the playoffs so far have really not been any different. It simulates every game 10,000 times and gives us the most likely outcome for the game, and you would be shocked how accurate this technology is nowadays.
The model has gone 39-28-10 (59% win) on All Texas Longhorns total bets of $100, so you had better believe that everyone will be interested in what it is projecting for that particular game.
However, a lot of people have been wondering who the model thinks is going to win the whole thing when all is said and done. I also wanted to know the answer to that question as we enter the CFP Semifinals, so our engineers got to work in order to find that answer. The results of the simulation might shock you a bit.
The BetQL model is projecting the Ohio State Buckeyes to win the CFP, with them winning the championship in 36.8% of the simulations. That probably is the most unshocking part of the simulation, as Ohio State is the current favorite in the market to do so. They have a 65% chance to win their game against Texas, according to model projections. However, the runner-up is probably the team you would least expect to be there.
The model is projecting the Penn State Nittany Lions as the second most-likely team to win the CFP, giving them a pretty good 28% chance to win the national title. Considering that Penn State is the biggest underdog at a lot of sportsbooks to win it all, perhaps they would be worth a wager at around +450. The model is seeing some value in that bet right now, as +450 is equivalent to an 18.18% chance to win, and it believes their chances are better than that.
That leaves us with the two teams that the model has as the biggest underdogs. The Texas Longhorns are in third place, with an 18.4% chance to win the title projected by the model. It will be tough going against the Buckeyes, but they managed to upset them in around 35% of simulations for that game. Right now, the model doesn’t see much of an advantage in the market to take them to win, as they are also the third biggest favorite there as well.
Lastly, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are the biggest longshot to win it all according to our model. They won the title in just 16.8% of simulations, but they are currently the second biggest favorite in the market to win, so there is obviously no value there for the model. The Irish have had a good run, but their luck could be running out with mounting defensive injuries.
Here are the projected winning percentages for each remaining game: Ohio State 65%, Texas 35% and Penn State 63%, Notre Dame 37%. The projected title game is Ohio State against Penn State, two Big Ten rivals playing for it all. Ohio State is projected to win that game 56% of the time, with the Nittany Lions winning 44% of the time.
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