The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers will face one of their toughest challenges of the season this weekend as they head into their matchup against Washington without their starting quarterback, Kurtis Rourke.
Rourke injured the thumb on his throwing hand in the first half of the Hoosiers' 56-7 win over Nebraska in Week 8 and has been ruled out indefinitely. Backup quarterback Tayven Jackson took over for him and played the entire second half, leading four touchdown drives for Indiana.
Jackson started five games for the Hoosiers last season, so he has plenty of experience under center, but his playstyle is different from Rourke’s which will affect how we approach betting on this game.
Despite being without their starting quarterback, Indiana is still favored by a touchdown (-7) at BetMGM. The total sits at 52.5. The Hoosiers have put up some monster numbers lately, scoring at least 40 points in five straight games. However, I would consider betting the under on Saturday.
Part of what’s made Rourke and this Indiana offense so effective is its ability to generate explosive plays, leading the Big Ten in plays of 10-plus, 20-plus and 30-plus yards. This has allowed the Hoosiers to quickly march downfield where they lead the country in red zone scoring attempts per game (6.0) and rank No. 2 in red zone scoring percentage (TD’s and FG’s) at 97.2%.
With Jackson under center, Indiana is likely to utilize its ground game to help him find a rhythm and minimize mistakes through the air. That will bleed more clock faster than the Hoosiers are used to, bringing their number of scoring opportunities down. With Jackson playing the entire second half against Nebraska, Indiana finished with 224.0 rushing yards, which is well above its season average of 183.8 yards.
Washington's run defense just gave up 220.0 yards on the ground to Iowa who is extremely run heavy, so the Hoosiers could find success with a similar game script. Not to mention, the Huskies lead the country in passing defense, so establishing a ground game is going to be paramount to Indiana’s success.
For as good as the Hoosiers have been on offense, their defense has been equally as strong. They rank No. 8 in scoring defense, giving up just 15.5 points per game. The Huskies have failed to top 20 points in three of their last five games, averaging just 22.3 points on the season.
Indiana has the 7th-best run defense (93.5 yards per game) that should shut down Washinton’s ground game which ranks 64th. The Huskies passing attack is significantly stronger, ranking 13th with 297.3 yards through the air per game. If there is a weakness on the Hoosiers’ defense, it’s through the air, however, they’re still allowing the 29th-fewest air yards in the country.
With fewer explosive plays and a heavier reliance on the ground game, I anticipate a much slower pace than what Indiana typically operates at. Combine that with limited scoring opportunities for the Huskies thanks to the Hoosiers' stout defense, and the under 52.5 looks like a strong play for Week 9.
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