Week 5 of the college football season brings several compelling matchups with exciting betting opportunities. From Michigan's dominant ground game taking on Minnesota's struggling defense to Eastern Michigan's stout defense visiting a winless Kent State, there’s plenty of value to explore. We also break down Illinois' massive 17.5-point underdog spread against Penn State as they look to continue their surprising undefeated run. Let's dive into the top picks and matchups for this week in college football.
#12 Michigan (3-1) -9.5 vs. Minnesota (2-2)
Michigan enters this game with momentum after a hard-fought 27-24 win over USC, where they relied heavily on their rushing attack. Quarterback Alex Orji stepped in, completing just seven passes for 32 yards, but it was the ground game that carried Michigan. They rushed 45 times for 290 yards, showing their commitment to a power run game. Minnesota, on the other hand, comes into this matchup after a 31-14 loss to Iowa, where they were gashed for 272 rushing yards, including 206 yards on just 21 carries by Kaleb Johnson. Minnesota's defense has been porous against the run, and Michigan's running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards could have big days. BetQL projects a Michigan win by 18 points and the numbers lean in favor of Michigan controlling the game with their dominant rushing attack.
Eastern Michigan (3-1) -13.5 at Kent State (0-4)
Eastern Michigan rolls into this matchup following a 36-0 shutout of St. Francis. Kent State, however, has struggled mightily this season, still searching for its first win. The Golden Flashes are 0-4, including a 23-17 home loss to that same St. Francis team, and have been shut out by Tennessee and Penn State in consecutive weeks. Eastern Michigan’s defense has been rock-solid, allowing just seven first-quarter points this season, and their pass rush ranks tied for seventh in the nation with 13 sacks. Kent State’s offense has been abysmal, and it's unlikely they’ll be able to handle Eastern Michigan’s pressure. The Eagles, who lead the MAC in red zone defense, should be able to cover the 13.5-point spread comfortably, especially with their defense suffocating a Kent State offense that has looked overmatched all season.
#19 Illinois (4-0) +17.5 at #9 Penn State (3-0)
llinois heads to Beaver Stadium after an impressive 31-24 win over Nebraska, where quarterback Luke Altmyer went 21 of 27 for 215 yards and four touchdowns. The Fighting Illini are 4-0 this season and have already knocked off two ranked teams. Their defense has been exceptional, ranking 15th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 12.5 points per game. Illinois has a history of success at Penn State, including their historic nine-overtime victory in 2021. Penn State, while undefeated, has looked vulnerable, including a narrow 34-27 win over Bowling Green. Illinois has proven they can play with top teams and are 3-0-1 against the spread this season. Their ability to control time of possession and limit turnovers makes them a strong underdog play at +17.5. Illinois’ balanced offense, led by Altmyer, and its top-tier defense should keep this game closer than the spread suggests, making the Fighting Illini a great value pick. I might sprinkle their moneyline, too.
Week 5 offers intriguing betting opportunities with some clear mismatches and underdog potential. Michigan’s powerful ground game should exploit Minnesota’s weak run defense, making them a strong play at -9.5. Eastern Michigan's stout defense and dominant pass rush should easily cover the -13.5 spread against a struggling Kent State team, while Illinois offers excellent value as a 17.5-point underdog, looking to upset Penn State in a game that could be much closer than expected.
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