One of the most profitable ways of betting long-term involves fading the public, and backing the side that the sportsbooks need to cover. After all, Las Vegas doesn’t keep expanding and building new casinos if they lost more big decisions then they won, right? Some of the biggest games of Week 1 of the college football season had favorable results for the book, but it didn’t come without a few hiccups along the way.
North Dakota State at Colorado
The first big matchup of the week was North Dakota State visiting Colorado last Thursday night. Coach Prime and the Buffs generally get a ton of public love in the market, and the same could be said for this game. Colorado saw 62% of early spread bet tickets and 76% of early spread money according to BetQL. As a result, the book needed the Bison to show some heart and cover the spread, which reached as high as +11 just hours before kickoff.
With a 31-20 lead late in the game, NDSU was able to get a touchdown to make it 31-26, and failed to get their two-point conversion. The Buffs were able to run the clock down almost all the way, and the game ended with a five-point win for Colorado.
#Clemson at #1 Georgia
This game was played at a “neutral” venue, which was the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Atlanta, which really wasn’t neutral. The Bulldogs were the top team in the nation, and the perception that Clemson was a failing program has been in the public’s mind for a couple years now. The spread got as high as Tigers +14, before falling to +11.5 just before kickoff.
In an interview with Vegas Insider’s Patrick Everson, BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee gave his insight on the game before it got underway: "Sharps are all over Clemson. The public is still betting Georgia. We'll still need Clemson to cover +13.5. The moneyline is fine right now, but a Clemson outright win kills a lot of parlays."
The public claimed victory early Saturday when Georgia ripped Clemson to shreds, annihilating them 34-3.
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#7 Notre Dame at #20 Texas A&M
The public sure feasted on Saturday, as they also came out on top in the last Top 25 matchup of the day. The No. 7 Fighting Irish were +2.5 to +3 underdogs to the No. 20 Aggies at Kyle Field, and whenever a higher-ranked team is an underdog, the public betting masses will be all over them.
According to BetMGM’s John Ewing, the Irish were the most bet underdog to win on Saturday at +125 odds. The book clearly needed A&M to come through there with all of that plus money on Notre Dame, but they couldn’t get it done, setting up a very successful Saturday for square bettors.
#13 LSU at #23 USC
The Sunday island game featured the last Top 25 matchup of the weekend, when the No. 13 LSU Tigers traveled out to Las Vegas to play the No. 23 USC Trojans at a “neutral” venue of Allegiant Stadium. Again, it is just four hours from Los Angeles, so I wouldn’t call that entirely neutral. After a poor Saturday result for the books, some favorable ones were due, and they got it in this game.
Only 36% of the money was on USC to cover the spread, and despite this, the line moved from USC +6 to +4.5 at game time. On the moneyline, just 37% of the money was on the Trojans. A flood of LSU money came in late, and once again according to BetMGM’s Ewing: USC covering was “the best outcome for the sportsbook.”
It was a back and forth game, but in the waning minutes, the Trojans scored a TD to get the win 27-20, and get the books back on track for the weekend with a big result.
Boston College at #10 Florida State
After their embarrassing loss to Georgia Tech as nearly a two touchdown favorite in Week 0, the Seminoles needed a win badly to get that awful taste out of their mouths. Surely they wouldn’t lose back to back games as two-touchdown favorites, right? At least, that is what the general public was thinking for this game.
63% of the bets and 69% of the money was on Florida State’s spread, despite the line moving drastically from opening at +21.5 to just +16.5 at kickoff. Just 17% of the money was on Boston College to win the game outright, with a whopping 83% of it on FSU winning the game. An upset by the Eagles would be a huge result for the book, clearly.
They came through, with an absolute embarrassment of the Seminoles in a 28-13 victory that killed a ton of liability for the books, especially in parlays.
In the biggest games of the weekend, the public went 2-3, showing again why fading them can be a profitable venture through the season.
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