Week 12 of college football features some intriguing betting opportunities identified by the BetQL model. Whether it’s backing UL Monroe to cover a massive spread against Auburn, trusting BYU to remain undefeated against Kansas, or betting the under in a high-total game between Hawaii and Utah State, the model provides data-driven plays with clear value. Let’s dive into these top picks and the reasoning behind them.
UL Monroe +25 at Auburn (5-Star)
Clearly, the BetQL model has not liked what it has seen from the Auburn Tigers this season, but none of us have, to be fair. The team has gone from an SEC powerhouse to one of the forgotten institutions in the conference, and their 3-6 record in 2024 shows that. Their offense has been largely ineffective with QB Payton Thorne at the helm, and they haven’t really been able to run the ball that effectively either.
The model has Auburn as a -17.5 favorite, so getting UL Monroe at +25 is clearly showing a ton of value, as we are getting over a touchdown of value here.
UL Monroe has lost three straight games coming into this one after starting their season 5-1. It has mostly been due to the defense having a bad run, allowing nearly 30 points in all three of those games. Still, this is a lot of points and the model thinks they can cover this spread.
BYU ML -135 vs. Kansas (4-Star)
This one isn’t a 5-star wager, as that UL Monroe bet is the only one of the weekend for the model, but we still have a pretty good one here at 4-star. BYU is 9-0 and ranked No. 6 in the country, and probably one of the biggest surprises in college football this season. They have had all cylinders going on both offense and defense, and no matter how many times they have been on upset alert, they keep defying the sportsbooks.
The model has their moneyline at a fair price of -212, and we are getting them here at -135 at most places, which offers some significant value. The model doesn’t want to mess with the spread, and is just going to keep things simple in taking them to win the game.
Kansas has lost three of their last five games, and has been the opposite of BYU to this point. They have been a massive disappointment, as they were expected to be contenders in the Big 12 once again after last season's successful campaign. Still, this is a 3-6 team on the road that is just a small +2.5 underdog. The Cougars have to be very cautious here, as this is a very live trap game.
Hawaii at Utah State Under 60.5 (4-Star)
We have another 4-star wager here from the model, and it is taking the under in the Hawaii at Utah State game at a massive 60.5 total. Hawaii certainly won’t be helped by the fact that they have had to travel so far away to play the game, and that always contributes to an under. It will be tough because Utah State’s defense has been terrible, allowing 50+ points in three of their last five games, and 49 in another. However, maybe we can catch them sleeping here.
The model has this game lined at 54.5, so we are getting close to a touchdown worth of value here.
Utah State, while I just talked about their trash defense, has also been lighting it up on offense. They have scored 30+ in three of their last five games, and nearly got there in the other two. This will be a disgusting pick, but at the same time, that is what wins many times with a majority of people on the over.
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