Week 2 of the college football season brought a mix of surprising upsets, dominant performances, and a rollercoaster for bettors. From Michigan’s flop against Texas to Iowa State's remarkable comeback, sharp bettors and sportsbooks had plenty of drama to navigate. Let’s take a closer look at how fading the public paid off in some matchups, while in others, the public came out on top in a big way.
Michigan Fails To Show Up For Sharps
The biggest game on the entire Saturday slate featured the #3 Texas Longhorns visiting the defending national champion #10 Michigan Wolverines. Texas was laying -7.5 for most of the week and closed -6.5 at kickoff, and just about everyone and their brother was on the higher-ranked Longhorns to come in and destroy a depleted Wolverines squad.
Not only did Michigan struggle the week before against Fresno State at home, but they had already lost half of their championship roster from the previous season, including head coach Jim Harbaugh and QB J.J. McCarthy. Public perception of them was low to start the season, and just got worse after the first week. It was not shocking to see everyone on their Top 5 opponent in Week 2.
A whopping 64 percent of bets and 71 percent of the money was on Texas spread in the game, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing. The sportsbook needed Michigan to show up for them at home, but it wasn’t meant to be, as they got pummeled 31-12 and sent the public masses home with a nice victory to start out their Saturday.
Iowa State’s Incredible Comeback Great For The Books
After the public was on cloud nine after cashing their ticket on Texas, the next big game of the day featured two teams that had a closing total of just 35 points when the game began: the Iowa State Cyclones and Iowa Hawkeyes. The CyHawk battle is typically a low-scoring affair, as nearly all Iowa games are.
Iowa closed as a -3 favorite at home in the game, and the betting splits were completely skewered one way. According to Ewing, 74 percent of tickets and 75 percent of the handle was on the Hawkeyes -3 to cover and win at home. The entire planet was on them here.
It very much seemed like the public was going to cash their second huge ticket of the day, as the Cyclones mustered zero points at halftime and looked completely lost, trailing 13-0. However, Iowa also struggled to score any points of their own. In the second half, ISU started cooking with gas and managed to come all the way back to win on a game-ending field goal 20-19. Fading the public paid off in this instance.
Colorado vs. Nebraska A Mixed Result
This game really wasn’t a contest from the start, with the Huskers dominating on both sides of the ball in a 28-10 victory at home. At the sportsbook, it was a mixed bag of results, but they did avoid their biggest liability in the game which was a Colorado win.
According to Ewing, 85 percent of bets and 78 percent of the money was on the Buffs moneyline at 2/1 odds when the game closed. This would have been a horrible result for the sportsbook, so to avoid that was certainly a win for sharps.
However, the spread was a different story. Nebraska closed as a -6.5 favorite, and they also were taking 57 percent of bets and 56 percent of the handle. The ideal result for the book in this game would have been a Husker win but a Colorado cover, but it was a total blowout.
The public is not going to stop backing the Buffs I’m sure, so fading them will become a staple every week just like last season until people realize they just aren’t that good.
Public Wins BIG On The Vols
The other marquee ranked matchup of the night involved the #14 Tennessee Volunteers traveling to take on the #24 N.C. State Wolfpack. The Vols opened -5.5, but after these teams had opposite performances in Week 1, they jumped up to -9.5 by kickoff.
Tennessee was coming off of a complete annihilation of FCS Chattanooga in a 69-3 victory, while N.C. State had a back and forth affair at home against FCS Western Carolina that they won 38-21. The public perception was that Tennessee was a far and away better team.
Taking a look at the betting splits, the world was on Tennessee -9.5 and 67 percent of the tickets and 76 percent of the money was on the Vols to cover. They were also on the over, which closed at 60 points, with 72 percent of the tickets and 76 percent of the money as well.
Well, the sportsbook lost big time on this game, as Tennessee romped to a 51-10 win, covering both the spread and total for the public.
As we gear up for Week 3, the betting landscape continues to shift. With public sentiment heavily favoring some teams, sharp bettors and sportsbooks will need to remain vigilant. Will fading the public remain a successful strategy, or will popular teams continue to dominate? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the unpredictability of college football keeps everyone on their toes.