Week 4 of the college football season delivered thrilling matchups, but it was the sportsbooks that came out on top in most of the high-profile games. From Illinois’ shocking upset over Nebraska to Michigan’s victory against USC, and Utah prevailing without their star quarterback, the betting public struggled to catch a break. While bettors found some relief in Tennessee’s dominant performance over Oklahoma, the majority of outcomes favored the books. Let’s break down the public betting trends and how the sportsbooks capitalized on the biggest games of the week.
Illinois at Nebraska: A Big Win for the Sportsbooks
College Football Week 4 started off with a bang on Friday with No. 24 Illinois facing off with No. 22 Nebraska for a Big Ten showdown. The Cornhuskers were pretty massive favorites in this game, with the line closing at Nebraska -8.5, and the total sitting at 42.5. The early money favored Illinois, which is somewhat common since a lot of favorite money comes in closer to kickoff. It was a back and forth affair all game, and it couldn’t be decided in regulation, so the game went to overtime. The Fighting Illini scored quickly in OT, and the Cornhuskers couldn’t match on their chance, so Illinois walked away with a huge upset win with a final score of 31-24.
According to BetMGM’s John Ewing, 52 percent of the bets and 53 percent of the money was on Nebraska spread. Obviously, the sportsbook won there since Nebraska lost the game outright as an 8.5-point favorite. Interestingly, however, 71 percent of the bets and 32 percent of the money was on Illinois moneyline at +280 odds. That was a nice payout for public bettors who took a shot with the Illini. In the end though, the total gave the match decision to the books. 51 percent of bets and 55 percent of money was on the under 42.5. A final of 31-24 blew that out of the water.
Michigan Upsets USC in Another Good Outcome for the Books
The first huge matchup of the Saturday slate involved the No. 11 USC Trojans traveling to the Big House in Michigan to take on the defending champion No. 18 Wolverines. Coming into the game, USC looked like the obvious play to most bettors, as they had looked far better this season than Michigan. The Wolverines were less than impressive in every one of their previous matchups, and that blowout loss at home to Texas was still fresh in the public hive mind. USC closed as a -4.5 favorite in the game, with the total landing at 44 when the game began.
Michigan came out of the gates swinging, taking an early double-digit lead and sinking the public in the first half. USC mounted a comeback in the second half, taking a 24-20 lead and giving squares hope that they would come out victorious in the first big game. Unfortunately for them, the Wolverines went on a game-winning drive as time started to run out, and took home a very nice 27-24 win they desperately needed.
A high 75 percent of bets and 74 percent of money was on USC, so that outright loss crushed the masses. However, much like the Nebraska game, 67 percent of bets and 55 percent of money was on the Wolverines moneyline at +160 odds. So, while we had a mixed bag there again, the total once again gave the decision to the books. Final numbers: 51 percent of the bets and 55 percent of money was on the under 44, which died with that late Michigan TD.
Utah Beats Oklahoma State Without Cam Rising, and the Books Rejoice
The second big game of the day involved the No. 12 Utah Utes and the No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys in a game that was lined almost as a pick’em. The bets and money were pretty evenly split for a while here, that is until Utah ruled out their starting QB Cam Rising. As soon as that happened, a flood of public money came rolling in on Oklahoma State at home against a backup signal-caller. As one would assume, that did not end up working out well for them in the end, as Utah still managed to win the game 22-19. Oklahoma State closed as a -1 favorite, with the total sitting at 53.5.
Notably, 58 percent of bets and 57 percent of money was on the Cowboys spread, which again, was flooded when Rising was ruled out close to kick and still lost. The moneyline was interesting, with 49 percent of tickets and 53 percent of money on Utah. The total once again gave the books a nice win, as a 22-19 final soared under the closing line of 53.5. 63 percent of bets and 73 percent of money was on the over.
Tennessee’s Dominance Over Oklahoma: A Rare Public Win
To this point in the day, the public had gotten killed on the ranked matchups this week. The books were up quite large, but as we know, you have to allow the masses one win so they keep coming back for more. That game was the late night battle between No. 6 Tennessee and No. 15 Oklahoma. Everyone and their brother was on the Vols here, as they had outscored their opponents coming into the game 191-13 and looked unstoppable. The game was never as close as the box score would make you think, with Tennessee winning 25-15, as the Sooners only scored in garbage time.
Tennessee closed as a -6.5 favorite, and the total ended up at 56.5 when the game kicked off. A high 67 percent of bets and 74 percent of money was on the Vols spread, which was never a doubt for the public here. Also, 55 percent of the bets and 54 percent of the money was on the under, which again, was an easy win for those bettors. The only win for the books was avoiding the moneyline, where 55 percent of bets and 54 percent of money was on the Sooners.
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