The stakes of this game are actually much larger than I think some people realize. Even though the Aggies (8-3) lost last weekend in an upset to Auburn, they can still play in the SEC title game against Georgia, but they have to win this game against Texas (10-1) at home in order for that to happen. After all of the good things that the Longhorns have done this season, and even with a 10-1 record through 11 games, they can be snubbed from the SEC title game if they end up losing this weekend. Of course, whoever wins the SEC title game is guaranteed a spot in the College Football Championship, so this game will be critical for both teams. It’s that simple: win and you’re in.
The Longhorns have won four straight games heading into this one against their in-state rival, but they have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five contests. QB Quinn Ewers’ health is in question, but he should be good to go for this game according to the latest reports. In their 31-14 win over Kentucky last weekend, he tweaked his ankle and was complaining about it on the sideline. They keep winning, but to be honest, I haven’t really been impressed with them over the last couple of weeks.
As I just talked about, Texas A&M lost a heartbreaker in OT last weekend on a dropped TD in the endzone. With three losses, their season is on life support, and they need to win this game and the SEC title game to make the CFP. That is as daunting of a task as any, but they have to take it one step at a time, and it starts by taking care of business at home. Kyle Field is one of the toughest places to play in CFB, so it isn’t going to be easy for the Longhorns to waltz in there and win this game, especially with how they have been playing in general.
I find it very curious that right now, 60% of the money is on Texas to cover the spread, but the line has moved from +6 to +5.5 everywhere in the market. So, despite money coming in on the Longhorns, the oddsmakers have actually given that side a better line. That tells you that the money that has come in on the Aggies is largely respected cash, and the sharps are on Texas A&M to keep this one close. I tend to agree with them here, as I have to imagine the amount of money that will be on Texas in terms of the spread and in moneyline parlays is going to be a large liability for the books.
If you can get a +6 with the Aggies anywhere when you are reading this, I would bet that right now. However, I realize that number is only available at about three spots that I see in the market, and you may not have access to it. I feel like it has a chance to move back to +6 later in the week as more public cash likely comes in on the Longhorns in every which way. I would only play them at +6 in terms of feeling good about the spread, but I also think a small moneyline sprinkle is also warranted here with the Aggies.
The total is 48.5 at most places, with 66% of the cash on the under as we speak. I would again wait this out, as over money generally comes in as kickoff gets closer from the public masses. Make sure to keep checking where the money is going and where the line is moving as the week moves along.
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