Betting trends in college football can be a bit of a risk, as the oddsmakers surely take these into account when they make a number for a game, so the advantage of it can be an illusion. Other times, it may not matter, as the team just continues to defy the number and continue with the trend no matter what the books post up there. The Houston Cougars this season have defined one of those teams, as they have one of the most noticeable trends in CFB this season.
The Cougars are 4-6 SU this season and they are obviously not a very good football team, but they have made you a ton of money if you continuously bet the under in all of their games in 2024. Somehow, only one of their games all season has gone over the closing total, and that was on Oct. 19 against the Kansas Jayhawks on the road. Outside of that game, all nine other contests have gone under the closing total, as the under has gone 9-1 in their contests!
The total has gone under in every single Houston home game this season, and with a contest in Houston coming up against the Baylor Bears, that will be put to the test. Baylor has gone over the total in four of their five road games this year, so it will be a battle to see whose trend comes out victorious.
The Bears are also 7-3 to the over this season overall, and have an offense that has the capability to score some serious points. They also have a defense that is horrendous, allowing opposing teams to convert on third down at one of the highest rates in the nation.
It isn’t hard to discover why so many Houston games have gone under the closing total. Their offense is dreadful in nearly every statistical category, but they are one of the worst teams in the country in a key stat that has a lot to do with their ability to score. Houston is ranked 250th in the nation in Red Zone Efficiency, meaning that they are just horrendous when they get into that area and fail to score a lot of the time. If you can’t score in the red zone, you are not going to be very successful.
What is a bit odd is that their defense has also been terrible, getting absolutely torched through the air every single week. The Cougars rank 251st in passing yards allowed, and are 191st in Red Zone Efficiency allowed, so it is a bit shocking that more totals haven’t gone over simply based on the opponent putting up a ton of points on them every week.
However, last week’s 27-3 loss to the Arizona Wildcats pretty much sums up the average Houston game this season with the expectation of a few closer affairs. The Cougars’ 9-1 record to the under is the highest in the FBS, and with how awful they are on offense, I don’t see that kind of trend turning around. Houston is a +8 underdog at home against Baylor this coming week with a total of 50.5 pretty much everywhere.
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