Week 4 of the college football season brings us another exciting slate of games, and I’m back with my top picks. After a 3-0 sweep in Week 3, I’m now a beautiful 8-2 on the season, up +5.71 units. Let’s dive into his best bets for this weekend using BetMGM odds.
Week 1: 4-0, +4.03 units
Week 2: 1-2, -1.05 units
Week 3: 3-0, +2.73 units
Season: 8-2, +5.71 units
#22 Nebraska (3-0) -9.5 vs. #24 Illinois (3-0): -110
Nebraska (3-0) is coming off a dominant 34-3 win over Northern Iowa in Week 3 and has looked solid in all three games this season. The Cornhuskers are allowing just 8.5 points per game, tied for 9th-best in the nation, while giving up only 1.6 yards per rush attempt. Their ability to control the game with a staggering 61.57% time of possession (5th-best in FBS) will make it tough for Illinois to find an edge.
On the other side, Illinois (3-0) hasn't been as convincing despite their unbeaten record. They escaped with a 23-17 win over Kansas in Week 2 and dominated lesser opponents in Central Michigan and Eastern Illinois. Illinois QB Luke Altmyer will face intense pressure against Nebraska’s stout defense, who held Altmyer to just 289 yards and one TD in last year’s 20-7 Cornhuskers win.
With Nebraska’s true freshman QB Dylan Raiola looking sharp, completing 73.8% of his passes for 670 yards and 5 TDs, expect the Cornhuskers to cover the 9.5-point spread at home in a sold-out Memorial Stadium. In fact, it’s the 400th consecutive sold-out game, so fans could be a little extra rowdy!
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California (3-0) ML at Florida State (0-3): +105
Cal (3-0) is rolling after a 31-10 win over San Diego State, and they’ve proven they can handle tough road environments with a 21-14 victory at Auburn in Week 2. Their sophomore RB Jaivian Thomas has been a revelation, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, while sophomore QB Fernando Mendoza has thrown 5 TDs to just 1 INT with a 70.1% completion rate. That win at Auburn should give them the confidence needed to go in and get the job done.
Florida State (0-3) is in shambles after three consecutive losses, including a shocking 24-21 defeat to Georgia Tech in Ireland. Their quarterback play has been poor, with DJ Uiagalelei completing only 56.6% of his passes for one TD and two INTs across three games. With the Seminoles rushing attack averaging just 2.2 yards per carry, Cal’s defense should have little trouble containing them.
Look for Cal to continue their undefeated season and take the moneyline at +105, as Florida State's struggles are likely to continue.
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UCLA (1-1) at #16 LSU (2-1) Over 55.5: -110
The over has hit in 18 of LSU’s last 20 games, and this matchup with UCLA should be another high-scoring affair. LSU has been prolific on offense, with QB Garrett Nussmeier racking up 895 passing yards and 10 TDs through the first three games. He has dynamic weapons in WRs Aaron Anderson and Kyren Lacy, who are already over 220 receiving yards each.
UCLA will need QB Ethan Garbers to step up if they hope to keep pace. Garbers has been their leading passer and rusher, but he’ll need to exploit LSU’s porous pass defense, which is allowing 9.4 yards per attempt, ranking 118th out of 134 FBS teams.
With LSU capable of scoring in bunches, and UCLA looking to stay competitive, this total of 55.5 points is well within reach. Don’t be surprised if LSU threatens to cover the over by themselves.
These Week 4 expert picks offer a mix of spreads, moneyline, and totals that provide great value. Nebraska’s defense and home-field advantage, Cal’s superior form, and LSU’s offensive firepower make these some of the best bets for the week.
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