The Chiefs earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and secured a first-round bye, giving them extra time to rest and prepare as they get set to host the Texans in the Divisional Round. Meanwhile, Houston is riding high after pulling off an impressive home upset against the Chargers as 3-point underdogs in the Wild Card round.
Kansas City is looking for a historic seventh consecutive trip to the AFC Championship Game, a testament to their dominance under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs opened as sizable 8-point favorites at BetMGM, showcasing the respect oddsmakers have for the two-time defending champs. The total for this matchup initially opened at 43.5 but has since dipped to 41.5 across most sportsbooks, signaling we could be in for a lower-scoring game.
Why the Texans Can Win
The Texans’ defense was lights-out against the Chargers, forcing four interceptions from Justin Herbert, who had only thrown three picks all season. All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. snagged two of those interceptions, while safety Eric Murray returned one for a touchdown.
Houston’s pass rush was equally impressive, with Will Anderson Jr. tallying 1.5 sacks, a tackle for loss, and three quarterback hits. Mario Edwards Jr. added 1.5 sacks of his own, along with a tackle for loss and two QB hits. If DeMeco Ryans’ defense—including standouts like Denico Autry and Danielle Hunter—can replicate that pressure against Mahomes, they’ll have a shot at keeping this game close.
On offense, Houston’s 32-point performance against the Chargers masked their ongoing issues. They’ll face an even tougher test against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, which has consistently given elite offenses headaches. The Texans will need their defense to lead the charge if they hope to pull off the upset.
Why the Chiefs Can Win
The Chiefs essentially had an extended break, resting starters in Week 18 after a meaningless game against the Broncos. While that could cause some early rust, it also means Mahomes is fully healthy, and Andy Reid—known for his success after bye weeks—has had extra time to prepare.
Kansas City’s offense gets a boost with a healthy DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown back in the fold. Travis Kelce, who was relatively quiet during the regular season, has a history of turning it on in the playoffs.
Defensively, the Chiefs have the tools to exploit Houston’s weaknesses. The Texans struggled to protect C.J. Stroud against the Chargers’ pass rush, and now they face a Chiefs defense that’s even more dangerous. With Chris Jones back, Kansas City should have no trouble applying pressure and disrupting Stroud’s rhythm.
Best Bet: Texans +8
While I fully expect the Chiefs to win and punch their ticket to another AFC Championship Game, the 8-point spread feels a bit too high. Kansas City struggled against the spread during the regular season, going just 7-9-1 overall and 3-5 at home. With the extended break, they could start slow, making it tough to cover such a large number—especially with a total set at just 41.5. Back the Texans to cover, even if the Chiefs move on.
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