One of the teams that is a very popular pick to win the Super Bowl this season is the Buffalo Bills, who have one of the best quarterbacks in the game with Josh Allen under center. They are the No. 2 seed in the AFC this season and racked up another fantastic regular season record of 13-4. Now, they have to face the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs in what should be a great battle between two very good teams.
While handicapping this game, one cannot ignore certain trends that pop up on the teams involved, and there is actually a really important one here with the Buffalo Bills that could really impact the result of this game. It surprisingly doesn’t have to do with Allen or the Buffalo offense, but rather it is the Bills defense that we are putting the magnifier on here, and head coach Sean McDermott.
Over their last 26 games, the Bills are just 4-22 ATS when they allow their opponent to score 21+ points in a game. It is pretty clear that when the game becomes a shootout, it never seems to end well for Buffalo. In fact, these two teams played each other earlier this year, and this trend played a direct impact on the result of the game. The Ravens ran all over the Bills, scoring 35 points and having no issue at all racking up yards. Of course, Buffalo lost 35-10 in a blowout, and did not cover the spread.
So for me at least, I think this game could come down to how well the Bills defense can play against a very explosive Ravens offense that ranks 1st in several categories, including yards per play and Red Zone Efficiency. It will be a very tough task since the Bills rank 21st in yards per play allowed. Don’t be fooled by last week's performance against the Broncos, who rate nowhere near Baltimore in teams of offensive efficiency. A rookie Bo Nix is a very different challenge than Lamar Jackson.
If they can actually manage to keep the Ravens from getting into the endzone at will, I think the Bills are going to end up winning the game. If they can’t, it will be the Ravens moving on to the AFC Championship. Knowing this, you can use it to your advantage to make some parlays that correlate with that exact outcome.
If you like the Bills, perhaps combining their moneyline with Ravens team total under would be a great wager to make. On the other side, if you like the Ravens, you can do the opposite by pairing their moneyline with their team total over. Either way, you will be getting some good plus money here with these correlated parlays.
Right now over at BetMGM, 71% of the money is on Baltimore to cover the spread, which has moved a lot since the open. The Ravens opened as an underdog, but that lasted all of five minutes before it flipped through the zero, and now the Ravens are favored. Sharp money clearly was all over Baltimore at the open, but resistance started to show at -1.5.
We’ll see if the Bills can finally make a run to the Super Bowl, and their defense is going to be the key to that.