When playoff football arrives, casual bettors often gravitate toward betting the under. The reasoning is simple: games tighten up, defenses intensify, and every possession carries heightened significance.
But Brad Evans isn’t your typical bettor. At least not when it comes to the AFC Wild Card matchup between the Ravens and Steelers.
“Baltimore may score 40 points alone,” the BetMGM Tonight host claimed.
Saturday night’s total opened at 46.5 but has since dropped to 43.5 at BetMGM. In their two meetings this season, these teams split their regular season totals, with one game staying under (34 points) and the other soaring over (51 points).
Still, recent trends from the Steelers have Evans skeptical about their ability to keep pace offensively—or to stop Baltimore’s potent attack.
“Pittsburgh in the last five weeks is just No. 28 in EPA per play on offense, No. 24 EPA per play on defense,” Evans explained.
Meanwhile, Baltimore has arguably been the NFL’s most complete team since their Week 15 bye. Over their last four games, they’ve scored 31+ points in each outing while holding opponents to 17 or fewer.
“Baltimore has been the most balanced team really since Week 10,” Evans said.
To support his point, Evans highlighted the Ravens’ efficiency metrics over the past five weeks, where they rank No. 2 in EPA per play offensively and No. 1 in EPA per play defensively.
“I think Baltimore is going to score 35-40 points in this game,” Evans said. “Pittsburgh will probably put up some points in garbage time as well and we cruise to a sweat-free cover on that over.”
However, our BetQL model strongly disagrees. The model makes the under 43.5 a five-star best bet rating, projecting a total of just 37.5 points—a full 8.5-point difference from the current line.
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