As we move into the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, we have four huge matchups to handicap to make the most informed wagers possible this weekend. There is going to be a ton of information out there to digest and go through, and one of those games is a battle between the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions. The oddsmakers think this game is going to be a blowout, with the home team Lions favored by nearly double-digits. There are several reasons why they are favored by that much, including some interesting trends.
I have been talking for some time about this specific trend, and it still remains very relevant today on Lions QB Jared Goff. It is pretty well known about his performance discrepancies when it comes to playing indoors vs. playing outdoors, and his ATS record in those games. This weekend, he will be playing indoors at home, where he has really thrived in his career.
Goff has been a far better quarterback playing indoors vs. outdoors, as his passer rating significantly outpaces his performance in the elements. It is rare that he records a passer rating below 100.0 when he plays indoors, and his completion percentage is close to 70% in those games. Goff is 44-21-1 against the spread (ATS) as a starter when he plays inside a dome, which is a massive advantage for him.
Playing outside is a very different story. I have often referred to him as a vegetable when he plays in the elements, as even the slightest breeze can throw off his game. His 82.0 passer rating outdoors is less than stellar, and because of his struggles, his teams have also failed to meet expectations. Goff is just 39-35-2 ATS when he plays outdoors, which is a huge drop off in coverage% for his teams. His style of play, which requires precision passing, doesn’t play well with any sort of weather.
I also have to imagine that because he has played inside a dome for a majority of his career, whether that was in SoFi Stadium with the Los Angeles Rams or at Ford Field with the Lions, he is just much more comfortable in perfect conditions and has a hard time adapting to others.
Since they are playing at home this weekend in Detroit, history says Goff should have a lot of success here, especially against a Commander's defense that has struggled at times. I actually expect him to use RB Jahmyr Gibbs a lot here, as Washington ranks 30th against the rush while they rank third against the pass. Expect the Lions to get their backs involved a lot, and perhaps Goff doesn’t even have to be fantastic for them to score.
As a Lions Super Bowl futures holder, I hope they can go all the way to cash for me. Perhaps the most encouraging news is that Detroit won’t play a game outdoors the rest of the way, as they have the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Super Bowl is inside the Superdome in New Orleans. Famously, the Lions played outdoors in San Francisco in the NFC Championship last year, and lost after a poor start.
This could really be their year, and who would have thought that a controlled environment might have a lot to do with it.