The Indianapolis Colts made a major decision regarding who’ll be taking the majority of their snaps ahead of their Week 9 meeting with the Minnesota Vikings. Anthony Richardson has struggled to establish himself as a reliable play caller since being selected with the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and will be replaced by Joe Flacco for the remainder of the regular season. This change under center will affect the betting market. Let’s take a look at what bettors should expect moving forward.
Point Spread and Totals
Richardson has been far from the league’s most efficient quarterback this season, but he has been able to keep games relatively close. Indianapolis went 3-3 SU in 2024 when the second-year quarterback started. Those six contests were decided by an average of 4.33 points. Flacco is 1-2 SU as a starter and his games have been decided by an average of 5.66 points. His sample size is half what RIchardson’s is, but there doesn’t appear to be a major difference against the spread given the data available.
The offense has looked more potent with Flacco running the show, though. Indianapolis has scored 121 points with Richardson on the field and 114 points with Flacco on the field. Flacco has thrown three more touchdowns and five fewer interceptions than Richardson despite having thrown just two more passes. The Colts are averaging a little over 2.0 points per game when Flacco starts over Richardson, but the point total has gone under in two of Flacco’s three starts. Flacco will need to play more before anything can be said about his impact on the spread or total.
Player Props
Jonathan Taylor crossed the century mark on the ground three times before making his first start alongside Flacco in Week 9. He rushed for a season-low 48 yards and no Colts running back has gone over 51 rushing yards in a Flacco start yet. Taylor will likely go over that mark at some point, but his outlook from a production standpoint isn’t encouraging.
Josh Downs has a lot to gain from Flacco starting, though. The second-year receiver has notched at least six receptions and 60 receiving yards in all of Flacco’s starts. He and Alec Pierce can benefit from Flacco’s ability to stretch the field with his more accurate long balls. Richardson’s starter passing yards average of 159.7 pales in comparison to Flacco’s 242.3. Bettors should be higher on the reception and receiving yards props for the Colts’ key pass catchers.
Betting the Colts Moving Forward
The Colts are 4-5 after their latest loss and will face some strong defensive teams in their final eight games of the season. They’ll face the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, New York Jets, and Denver Broncos over the course of the next five weeks. While their playoff odds look shaky, you can still bet on them to finish under 8.5 wins (-150) at BetMGM. Indianapolis can make things more interesting with a more dynamic passer to depend on. However, scheduling is not on the Colts’ side when it comes to the postseason picture.
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