If you have been listening and/or reading my NFL content this season, you know that I have a 12/1 ticket on the Lions to win the Super Bowl. You also know that I am very quick to fade them ATS nearly every week, because everyone and their brother also loves the Detroit Lions. They are normally favorites, so fading them ATS is not saying they are going to lose, but rather knowing the sportsbooks would love for them not to cover each week. It’s hard not to like them, sitting at 6-1 on the season and coming off of a 52-point performance against the Tennessee Titans.
In fact, I would wager that the Lions have now become the NFL’s most public team, as I can’t remember one weekend this season where the Lions didn’t receive a majority of the bets and money. This weekend, they will be facing the Green Bay Packers, and QB Jordan Love is questionable with an injury. Green Bay is just a +3.5 underdog, and I can assure you, no public bettor is going to be taking them at that short number.
The futures market is all the same with Detroit, with a ton of tickets and money on the Lions to win the NFC North, NFC, and the Super Bowl. Right now, over at BetMGM, they are rooting against the Lions in pretty much every possible way every week and for the season. Our friend John Ewing, who works in Data and PR with BetMGM, was kind enough to share the latest betting splits on the NFL futures market. This information is invaluable, as it tells you where the money is going right now, and what the book needs.
The Lions to win the NFC is BetMGM’s biggest liability right now in the conference futures market. Detroit is the current 3/1 favorite to win the conference, so I am happy having a 12/1 ticket, but also quite worried. The Lions account for 33.9% of all NFC conference future tickets, as well as 40.4% of the total handle in the market. That really scares me quite a bit, as it is very rare that the biggest liability for the sportsbook ever actually gets paid out. They wouldn’t keep building casinos in Vegas if they lost large sums of money.
Of course, it is hard to see another team in the NFC getting the best of them right now. I know I bet on them because I love their offensive line, and the fact that Detroit has almost a full schedule of games that take place indoors. I have said plenty of times that QB Jared Goff is a completely different signal-caller when he plays outdoors as compared to in a dome. That’s why I think they might lose this weekend to Green Bay. However, most of their games are played inside, which gives them a very favorable schedule.
I would not recommend betting the Lions at a number as low as 3/1 odds. There is just no value in that now, and I am also weary of them with that liability.
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