Week 4 of the NFL season brought a rollercoaster of emotions for bettors, with the public experiencing a mix of triumphs and disappointments. While the Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears managed to cover the spread and provide some relief for public bettors, other matchups, like Joe Flacco's unexpected success against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens' dominant win over the Buffalo Bills, left many wagering fans in dismay. The week was marked by notable trends, surprising performances, and the ongoing struggle of some big-name quarterbacks. As we recap the public's betting experience, we’ll explore the key moments that shaped the week and analyze how they impacted the odds and perceptions heading into Week 5.
The Public Cashes With The Bengals
Overall, the public got killed on Sunday, but one of their few wins came with the Cincinnati Bengals winning their first game of the season and covering the spread. Depending on when you bet it, you either got a -4.5 or -5.5, but both bets would have won. QB Joe Burrow looked like his old self, ripping the Panthers defense for huge yardage and points. According to John Ewing over at BetMGM, a whopping 81 percent of tickets were on the Bengals to cover this game, so the sportsbooks clearly were not happy when they did. It was actually a bit of a sweat in the end, as Carolina managed to get within a touchdown, but couldn’t quite get within the number and lost 31-24. Still, it is obvious that QB Andy Dalton at least gives the team some life where Bryce Young did not.
Joe Flacco and the Colts Crush the Public
I don’t think anyone could have anticipated Joe Flacco coming into this game, but it might have been better that he did, as he looked like the far better QB in comparison to Anthony Richardson. Granted, he has a lot more experience than Richardson, and he diced up the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense as he did many times in the past as a Baltimore Raven. QB Justin Fields actually didn’t look that bad, but it was more so that Steelers defense that uncharacteristically couldn’t get a stop when they needed to. A gigantic 78 percent of tickets were on the Steelers -2 at BetMGM, so it was a great win for the books with the Colts upsetting Pittsburgh 27-24.
The Bears Bounce Back at Home
After their pitiful loss to the Colts last weekend, and with the Rams coming back to beat the San Francisco 49ers in their previous game, everyone and their brother was betting Los Angeles as an underdog. This is the kind of game you look at as a sharp bettor and easily identify a wager, as you knew immediately that most people would be on the Rams getting plus money with how the Bears have looked. I was right as well, as 65 percent of the tickets were on the Rams getting +3 in this game on the road. It wasn’t spectacular, but Chicago won 24-18 and covered the number, with their defense once again dominating. QB Caleb Williams and the offense looked terrible before the half, but then came out with seemingly an entirely different game plan, and they did what they needed to.
Las Vegas Shows Vegas Some Love
Believe it or not, a majority of bettors were fading the home town Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, with 64 percent of bets on the Cleveland Browns -2.5. Now, I don’t think people were betting the Browns because they thought they were any good. I think they were more so fading the Raiders because they saw them lose outright to the Carolina Panthers, who were the worst team in the NFL in the eyes of the public. The total for the game was 37, and it went under by one point in a very mucked up and ugly game. QB Deshaun Watson and Gardner Minshew put on a clinic on how to tell your head coach you want to be benched. Watson proved superior there, but since he is being paid like the best signal-caller in the league, he will likely keep starting for Cleveland.
Ravens Destroy Bills In Prime Time
This is another one of those games where as a sharp bettor, you look at the line and immediately know where you are going with it here. Buffalo was coming off of a huge blowout win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, so the public would be very high on them, especially with that 3-0 record they had. Baltimore managed to beat Dallas, but they once again almost collapsed late, and were sitting at 1-2. With the Bills getting points and at plus money, you just had to know that a lot of people would be betting them. A high 64 percent of the tickets were on the Bills +2.5, and the sportsbooks needed the favorite here. It wasn’t a contest, with Baltimore winning 35-10, and sending the public further down a spiral.
New Orleans Saves The Public With Late Touchdown
While they didn’t win the game, losing 26-24 on a last second field goal to the Falcons, the Saints did manage to cover the number for square bettors at +3. According to BetMGM, 60 percent of wagers were on the New Orleans spread here. I think most people saw them compete with the Eagles last week, and even in a loss, they still believed in the Saints. Meanwhile, the Falcons lost to the Chiefs, and I think they thought there was no way they should be laying -3. This was one of the very few games where the sharps lost, and even then, it was only by half a point in some cases. Atlanta was up 23-17 with a minute left when the Saints scored to make it 24-23.
Baker and the Bucs Own Philly
Last year, the Eagles got blasted in the Wild Card round by this Bucs team, so many thought they might get some revenge after how terrible Tampa Bay looked the previous week against the Denver Broncos. Philly was also coming off a win against the Saints, so the public clearly liked Jalen Hurts and the Eagles here. 60 percent of the bets were on Philadelphia’s spread of -1.5, and when they lost outright 33-16, it was just another feather in the cap of sharp bettors who had a monster day over the public squares.
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