For somebody whose philosophy when it comes to betting football is “fade the public”, I am swimming in cash so far this season. I don’t think I have had a better start to an NFL season in my betting career, and I can contribute that to the fact that underdogs in the NFL have been just crushing the public this season by winning games at an historic pace. If you have been paying attention to anything going on in the league, you know what I am talking about.
In Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals were -8 home favorites over the New England Patriots, the biggest spread of the week. They lost the game outright, thus sending the public square bettors and Circa Survivor contestants into shambles right away. In Week 2, the Baltimore Ravens were the biggest favorite of the week at -9 against the Las Vegas Raiders at home, and they lost outright. In Week 3, the Bengals were once again the biggest favorites of the week, sitting at -7.5 against the Washington Commanders at home. They lost, as I am sure you could have guessed.
The biggest underdog in all three weeks has won outright, which I guess is bad news for the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4, as they are -10 against New England. Underdogs of 7+ points have started the season 4-0 straight up, the first time that dogs of 7+ are above .500 SU through three weeks since 1956, per Action Network! Yes, people were popping open 5 cent Coke bottles at the gas station while attendants filled their Bel Air up the last time this happened.
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 8-5 SU and a remarkable 12-1 ATS through three weeks. All of these teams have that dog in them, that is for sure. I have personally profited just over $1k already this season in three weeks on just NFL wagers alone as a $100 unit bettor, as I am someone who takes a lot of stock in what the sportsbook needs in a game. You could say that the books and I have been ecstatic with this start.
If you recall last year in the NFL, the public had one of their best starts in history, so this is payback on the squares who took the books lunch money in 2023. Remember, the NFL is what keeps the lights on for the books during the summer months where only MLB is the big show in town. They make most of their money on football where the biggest handle by a mile comes in.
A word of caution to you all who will see this and blindly bet underdogs: don’t. Things will start to regulate as the season goes on, and once the general public starts to catch on here, you could see underdogs get bet at a high rate. That is when you know it is time to start fading them, so keep an eye on the betting splits on game day when the tickets and cash start really flowing in.
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