The Steelers and Browns meet on Thursday Night Football in an AFC North matchup, with both teams trending in opposite directions. Pittsburgh is riding high after a statement divisional win over the Baltimore Ravens, while Cleveland has suffered back-to-back losses, including a road defeat to the New Orleans Saints last weekend. Cleveland is out of the division race, but the Steelers will look to stack wins and stay atop the division.
Weather could play a big role, with temperatures expected in the low 40’s but feeling closer to 28 degrees thanks to rain and wind gusts up to 20 mph. Wind is the most impactful weather factor in football games, particularly for the passing attack. This has resulted in a very low total of 36.5 at BetMGM, signaling a matchup with limited scoring opportunities.
While points may be at a premium, that doesn’t mean there’s no value in the anytime touchdown scorer market. Here are two options that stand out to me for Thursday night:
Steelers RB Nick Chubb (+155, FanDuel)
Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled to contain opposing run games, allowing seven rushing touchdowns in their last five games compared to just two through the air. Meanwhile, Nick Chubb has resumed his role as Cleveland’s workhorse since returning from injury, registering double-digit carries in all four games this season. While his yardage totals haven’t been eye-popping, Chubb is the centerpiece of the Browns’ offense, especially with their passing game expected to be limited by the weather conditions.
Given Cleveland’s likely run-heavy game plan and the fact that Chubb has found the end zone just once since his return, this +155 price offers great value compared to his usual odds. He’s the most reliable option to punch one in for the Browns on Thursday night.
Steelers WR George Pickens (+225, BetMGM)
While the weather might cause the Steelers to run the ball a bit more than usual, George Pickens is still a strong candidate to find the end zone for Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ offense has improved significantly with Russell Wilson under center and Pickens emerging as his go-to weapon. The duo has connected for touchdowns in two of their last four games, with Pickens seeing an uptick in targets and receptions since Wilson took over, finishing with at least 74 yards in each game.
The Browns’ secondary has been a weak spot, allowing the most yards per catch (15.64) in the league and the fifth-most passing touchdowns per game (1.20). If Pittsburgh can exploit Cleveland’s secondary, odds are it’ll be through Pickens, making him a smart play at +225.
Steelers-Browns: Most Bet Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Bettors are also wagering heavily on anytime touchdown scorer markets for Sunday’s showdown. George Pickens leads the way at +225, as his role in the red zone makes him a popular choice. Najee Harris follows at +105, with expectations that he’ll see plenty of touches near the goal line. A more adventurous bet is Pittsburgh’s defense or special teams to score at +700, highlighting faith in the unit to capitalize on turnovers or miscues from Cleveland's offense.
David Njoku and Nick Chubb round out the list, with Njoku at +400 and Chubb at +150. Njoku’s odds reflect his potential as a red-zone target, while Chubb’s ground dominance consistently makes him one of the most popular bets for touchdown scoring opportunities. With both offenses heavily reliant on their stars, these wagers align with fan expectations for pivotal moments in this heated rivalry.
Related
