The final week of the NFL regular season always brings unique betting opportunities, and Week 18 is no exception. With teams vying for playoff spots and individual players chasing lucrative contract bonuses and record-breaking stat milestones, the stakes are sky-high. From Derrick Henry’s push for a $500k touchdown bonus to Geno Smith’s bid for $6 million in incentives, this week offers more than just playoff drama. Add in must-win scenarios and favorable matchups for key players, and you’ve got the perfect storm for prop betting. Dive in as we break down the best bets for Week 18, highlighting where motivation and opportunity collide.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry 70+ Alt Rush Yards & ATTD vs. Browns (-105, Caesars)
The Ravens need to beat the Browns to guarantee their AFC North win and therefore host at least one home playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium. While they’re 18-point favorites against the Browns, we’ve seen divisional opponents play spoilers from time to time, so John Harbaugh’s team is likely to play hard throughout this one. If they lose, they’ll be on the road for the entire postseason, so this is an important game. Not only will Derrick Henry be a huge part of the offensive game plan once again as a running back on a gigantic favorite, but he can earn another $500k bonus if he finds the end zone for his 15th touchdown of the season. The future Hall of Famer took 11 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown in a 29-24 loss to Cleveland back on October 27 and I expect him to crush in the rematch with revenge (and a big payday) on his mind.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson 100+ Rushing Yards vs. Panthers (-106, Caesars)
In order for the Falcons to make the playoffs, they need to beat the Panthers and the Buccaneers need to lose to the Saints. Like I’ve done all year long, I’m going right back to backing running backs against this putrid Panthers run defense and will put my faith in Robinson. He took 15 carries for 95 yards and two touchdowns in the first game against Carolina back in October, but has recently become the true three-down, workhorse back that we’ve been waiting to see down the stretch, getting 22 or more carries in four of the last five games. With rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. under center, Robinson should be the focal point of Atlanta’s offense and should thrive against a Panthers defense that has allowed 143.62 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, most in the NFL by a huge margin (next-most: Patriots at 116.44). Seven consecutive starting running backs have rushed for 100-plus against Carolina’s defense, which is pretty remarkable: Bucky Irving (113), James Conner (117), Rico Dowdle (149), Saquon Barkley (124), Irving (152), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (103) and Alvin Kamara (155). Robinson should crush in this must-win situation.
Giants WR Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Receptions vs. Eagles (+108, Caesars)
This game means nothing to the Eagles, but a lot to Nabers, who is just two catches away from the all-time rookie WR record and four catches away from fellow rookie Brock Bowers, who holds the all-time receptions record heading into his Week 18 game. This has been a disastrous season for the Giants, but if their star rookie walks away from it holding the NFL’s all-time receptions mark, it might not seem like it’s a complete dumpster fire heading into the offseason. Regardless of who’s been under center, Nabers has gotten targets this season. In fact, his 162 targets lead the entire NFL. That included double-digit targets in 10 of 14 starts, including four of the last five games. Going up against Philly’s backup corners should allow Nabers to get over this 6.5 number for the fifth time in six games and ten times in 15 games this year. I expect him to get peppered with targets throughout this one and wouldn’t put something like his career-high 18 targets (which he had in Week 2 against the Commanders) out of the question. Remember, if he’s going to break the all-time record, he has to assume Bowers will ball out as usual in his game and therefore do something very noteworthy.
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield Over 249.5 Passing Yards vs. Saints (-115, Caesars) & Buccaneers WR Mike Evans 100+ Receiving Yards vs. Saints (-105, Caesars)
The Buccaneers have a pretty simple situation heading into Week 18: beat the Saints and make the playoffs. Mayfield has a ton working in his favor in this one. First, he just got snubbed by getting left off a Pro Bowl roster despite throwing for 4,279 yards (3rd in NFL) and 39 touchdown passes (2nd). Second, his contract awards $500k if he finishes in the top 10 of the NFL or top 5 of the NFC in passer rating (currently 4th in the NFL), passing TD (2nd), passing yards (2nd), completion percentage (2nd) and yards per attempt (5th). He’s led the Bucs to wins in five of six games down the stretch and will be looking for No. 1 target Evans, who can earn a $3 million bonus if he catches five passes for 85 yards to get to 70 catches, 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on the year. Not only that, but Evans has recorded at least 1,000 receiving yards in all 10 previous years of his NFL career, all with Tampa Bay. Despite the fact that he missed three games due to an injury, he can keep that streak going, help his team make the playoffs and get paid a huge bonus for doing so.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton 90+ Receiving Yards vs. Chiefs (+205, DraftKings)
Like the Buccaneers, the Broncos have a simple win-and-in scenario for Week 18 and will likely be playing against Kansas City’s backups in a game that doesn’t matter to the Chiefs. Sutton needs 82 receiving yards to cash a cool $500k bonus and should be one of Bo Nix’s top targets once again. He caught six of nine targets for 70 yards and a touchdown when he faced the Chiefs back in November, but that was against KC’s top unit. Winning this game is of utmost importance, but I think there’s a likelihood that’ll be done through the air. Dating back to late October, Sutton has attracted eight or more targets in eight of nine starts and has a lot of upside in this spot.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith Over 244.5 Passing Yards vs. Rams (-113, BetRivers) & Seahawks WR DK Metcalf 60+ Receiving Yards vs. Rams (+114, Caesars)
The Seahawks are out of playoff contention, but a couple of their most important players have something to play for against the Rams, who will be sitting starters since they’re locked into their playoff spot. Smith has the chance to cash in with $6 million of incentives if he can get over 4,282 passing yards (has 4,097), have over a 69.76% completion rate (has 70.2%) and can guide his team to 10 wins (has nine). Metcalf has 939 receiving yards and therefore needs 61 to cross the 1,000-yard mark for the third consecutive season. I expect both guys to thrive in this game environment and expect Seattle’s offense to scheme to get Metcalf the football.
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs Over 123.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Vikings (-113, BetRivers) & Vikings WR Justin Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards vs. Lions (+114, Caesars)
The Lions and Vikings will enter this game with identical 14-2 records and will battle it out for not only the NFC North crown, but also the No. 1 seed in the NFC. This is therefore a gigantic game. Gibbs took 15 carries for 116 yards and caught four passes for 44 yards en route to a 31-29 win in Minnesota. With David Montgomery injured, Gibbs should see a massive workload and put up 154 and 163 rushing + receiving yards in two opportunities since his teammate got injured. Jefferson racked up 81 receiving yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, but with the gravity of this matchup, I expect him to crush. The Lions have allowed the 2nd-most receptions, most targets and most receiving yards to wideouts in the entire NFL, so the matchup can’t be better.
Quick Hitters
J.K. Dobbins Anytime TD vs. Raiders (-108, Caesars)
De'Von Achane Anytime TD vs. Jets (+128, Caesars)
Brock Bowers Over 7.5 Receptions vs. Chargers (+112, Caesars)
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