As we dive into NFL Week 3, there’s a promising parlay opportunity involving moneylines for three favorites: the Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, and Cincinnati Bengals. With a +152 parlay at BetMGM, this wager combines solid value with a strong likelihood of success, based on both odds and BetQL projections. The implied probability of the parlay sits at 39.58%, making it a smart option for bettors who want a balance of safety and return on investment.
First up are the Las Vegas Raiders, who are coming off a morale-boosting 26-23 win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. This week, they’ll face a struggling Carolina Panthers team that just made a quarterback switch from rookie Bryce Young to veteran Andy Dalton. The Raiders are currently listed as -250 favorites on BetMGM, and with the Panthers in disarray, this game feels like a secure pick. BetQL projections are even more optimistic, giving the Raiders a 78.3% win probability and setting the implied odds closer to -360.
Next, we have the Seattle Seahawks, who are 2-0 and primed to take on a 1-1 Miami Dolphins team that will be without star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With Skylar Thompson stepping in for Miami, Seattle’s revamped offense under Geno Smith looks poised to exploit the Dolphins' QB uncertainty. The Seahawks are -225 favorites on BetMGM, but BetQL’s models have them at a higher 82.89% win probability, making Seattle a strong pick for this parlay. Given the instability on Miami’s side, the Seahawks should easily control this game.
Finally, we round out the parlay with the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite being winless at 0-2, the Bengals are -400 favorites against the Washington Commanders, who barely squeaked by the New York Giants last week. Cincinnati’s struggles are well-documented, but BetQL gives them a massive 97.13% chance to win this matchup, suggesting a potential mismatch. With the Bengals eager to get their first win of the season and Washington showing vulnerability, Cincinnati’s inclusion in this parlay feels secure.
What makes this parlay particularly appealing is the contrast between BetMGM’s odds and BetQL’s projections. According to BetQL, the combined win probability for these three picks is 63.04%, which translates to implied odds of -171—significantly better than the +152 offered by BetMGM. This difference indicates a strong value play, as BetQL’s model suggests a higher likelihood of success than what the market is pricing.
In summary, this NFL Week 3 parlay features reliable picks in the Raiders, Seahawks, and Bengals. Each team is favored for good reason, and BetQL’s projections provide added confidence. If you’re looking for a parlay with solid value and a high chance of success, this is the one to place for Week 3.
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