Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and our betting model has identified three key plays that offer great value based on market inefficiencies. Whether you're looking to back the Ravens at home, take a moneyline underdog in the Saints, or cash in on a sneaky over in the Browns vs. Eagles game, these picks are backed by solid data. Let's dive into this week’s model-backed bets and get ready for an exciting NFL weekend.
Ravens -6.5 vs. Commanders (5-star)
The model is backing Baltimore (3-2) against the red-hot Washington Commanders (4-1) in the Beltway Battle this weekend, choosing to lay the -6.5 as a 5-star play. This was an easy bet to make for the model, as it has the Ravens as -10.5 favorites at home in this game. I like this play from the model myself, as the public is going to be all over Jayden Daniels and the Commanders here getting nearly a touchdown.
At some point, the Commanders are going to fall back to Earth. Yes, their offense has been fantastic, but no one seems to be talking about how bad their defense has been in general. Sure, they had a good game against the Browns last week, but that is the Browns. Their offense is a joke right now. I can almost guarantee that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will have much more success against them here at home.
This should be a good game, but the model is taking Baltimore, and I agree.
Saints ML vs. Buccaneers (4-star)
The model is also backing the New Orleans Saints (2-3) at home this weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2), and even likes them on the moneyline as a 5-star play. It thinks they should actually be a small favorite in this game, even without Derek Carr, at -109. Ever since Carr was injured in their last game against the Kansas City Chiefs, money has been pouring in on the Bucs, and they have gone from +2 to -3.5.
Rookie QB Spencer Rattler will make his NFL debut in this game. You might remember him as the former Oklahoma Sooner starter that was projected to be a No.1 overall pick out of high school, but never lived up to his expectations. He did find some success at South Carolina, however, and no one ever doubted his skill set. Would you really be shocked if he and the Saints won this game? I wouldn’t be at all.
Laying a field goal is too much here for the model, and it will take its chances with the Saints to get the win at a robust +150.
Browns/Eagles Over 42.5 (5-star)
Our last model pick will be on a total, and the model loves the over in the game between the Cleveland Browns (1-4) and Philadelphia Eagles (2-2). I just talked about how terrible the Browns offense has been, but this Eagles defense has also been a joke so far this season. The model has this one set at 48.5, so we are getting nearly a full touchdown worth of value here on the total.
Philadelphia’s offense has had a very up and down season this year, showing a ton of inconsistency. The best part of the Browns as a team is their defense, but the Eagles will be at home, and we all know that they have the talent to be explosive. It all comes down to if QB Jalen Hurts can take care of the football. Even though Deshaun Watson has been terrible, he will have an opportunity to be better in this one. The Eagles have gotten lit up several times this season, and their defense has been a disaster.
This is a very low total because no one believes in the Browns offense. It could be one of those games where we get a sneaky over here.
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