I’m back at it for another week of NFL player prop picks. Heading into Week 7, I’ve gone 32-17 (65.3%) for +10.23 units with average odds of -118 on the weekly picks in this article. (If you want to check out any of the previous articles, scroll down to the bottom of this article and click on the links.) Each week, I analyze the best possible situations based on value, matchups, recent performance and historical performance. Below, you’ll see my Week 7 player prop picks, featuring Justin Jefferson, Brock Bowers and George Kittle.
ALL PICKS (Sheet) | Week 6 | Week 5 | Week 4 | Week 3 | Week 2 | Week 1
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson Over 91.5 Receiving Yards vs. Lions (-114, FanDuel)
Justin Jefferson thrives against the Lions, averaging an incredible 134.1 receiving yards per game in eight career matchups. In his last three games against Detroit, Jefferson has gone for 192, 141, and a career-high 223 yards. The Lions' defense plays man coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the league, a scheme where Jefferson excels, posting 6.05 yards per route run and commanding more targets per route than against zone defenses.
Detroit has also allowed the most targets, receptions, and yards to wide receivers this season, and with Jefferson running 32.9% of his routes from the slot—where Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin both had 110+ yards and a TD against Detroit—this is a smash spot for Jefferson to hit the over. Overall, he’s averaged 134.1 receiving yards per game vs. Detroit and has gone for 124+ in six of eight career games against them. I’m going to ladder this up and I expect an astronomical output from the best wideout in the sport.
Raiders TE Brock Bowers Over 58.5 Receiving Yards vs. Rams (-130, BetMGM)
Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers has quickly emerged as a top target in the offense, especially with Davante Adams gone and Jacobi Meyers sidelined. Bowers has been targeted on a massive 34% of his routes when Adams is off the field, and he's coming off back-to-back impressive performances: 97 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos, followed by 71 yards against the Steelers, with 12 and then 10 targets, respectively.
The Rams have struggled against tight ends, allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to the position (59.0). With Bowers’ versatility and heavy usage in multiple alignments (FB, TE, WR), he’s well-positioned to surpass 58.5 receiving yards in this matchup. Considering the fact that he’s had Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell under center, it’s wildly impressive that he’s pacing for 100+ receptions and 1,000+ yards as a rookie tight end. No rookie tight end in NFL history has accomplished that feat and only three rookie wide receivers have. He ranks first in targets, receptions, receiving yards, yards after catch and receiving first downs among all NFL tight ends heading into this great matchup.
49ers TE George Kittle Over 50.5 Receiving Yards vs. Chiefs (-114, FanDuel)
George Kittle is in a great spot to clear 50.5 receiving yards in this matchup against the Chiefs, who have allowed the most targets, receptions, and yards to tight ends this season. Kittle has gone over this mark in 3 of his last 4 games, with receiving totals of 76, 64, and 58 yards. He’s also had success against Kansas City in the past, posting 79 and 98 yards in their previous meetings. With the 49ers likely to lean on the passing game due to injuries to Christian McCaffrey (out) and Jordan Mason (questionable), expect Brock Purdy to target Kittle often in what could be a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest.
Titans RB Tony Pollard Over 93.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Bills (-115, BetRivers)
Pollard has firmly overtaken the role as RB1 on the Titans and has some positive factors working in his favor once again this week. First, backup Tyjae Spears will be out with an injury. Second, Mason Rudolph will start in place of turnover-prone Will Levis. Next, Pollard is on a hot streak, scoring touchdowns in back-to-back weeks after getting 24 and then 20 touches. On the season, he’s gotten 19, 22, nine, 24 and 20 touches, which is an elite workload (with Spears healthy). I wouldn’t be shocked if he sees 25-to-28 touches in this game, especially since Tennessee is 1-4 and desperate for a win.
The Bills have allowed the 8th-most rushing yards per carry and 4th-most receiving yards per receptions to opposing running backs, so this is a solid matchup for him, regardless of game script. I suspect Tennessee’s game plan will revolve around running the football with him and if they fall behind (like I expect them to), he will be utilized in the passing game. This Buffalo front will likely get pressure on the immobile QB, thus creating additional check-down opportunities for Pollard, who has caught three or more passes in four of five starts. I consider Pollard to be a stud this week given his projected role and this plus-matchup.
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