Monday Night Football in Week 12 offers the perfect setting for bold predictions and high-reward betting opportunities. The matchup between the Ravens and Chargers highlights weaknesses in Baltimore’s secondary and big-play potential in LA’s passing attack. I’ve identified two high-upside bets for Justin Herbert and Joshua Palmer that could yield massive payouts. If you're feeling daring, there's even an extreme longshot parlay option to consider. Let’s break it down.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert Lights Up Baltimore’s Secondary (350+ Passing Yards & 4+ Passing Touchdowns: +3128, FanDuel)
As mentioned in my MNF Prop Picks article, this is the best matchup possible for Herbert and LA’s passing offense to produce; Baltimore has allowed an NFL-high 304.45 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and their secondary has gotten shredded all year. I expect Herbert to thrive in this matchup. Per PFF, Herbert ranks 2nd in the NFL in deep completions and the Ravens rank 30th in deep completions allowed. I expect the Chargers to exploit Baltimore’s biggest weakness, which is clearly their pass defense. Keep in mind that while Herbert hasn’t had over two touchdown passes in a game this season yet, he did record 349 passing yards in an October loss against the Cardinals, which gave us a glimpse of that yardage upside. Joe Burrow (428 yards, 392 yards), Dak Prescott (379 yards) and Baker Mayfield (370 yards) have all gone over 350 yards against the Ravens this season and Burrow recorded four and five TD passes against them in his two meetings. At +3128 odds, this two-leg longshot is worth a sprinkle.
Chargers WR Joshua Palmer Goes Off (100+ Alt Yards & Anytime TD: +1550, BetMGM)
If I expect Herbert to go off, I naturally like his receivers. Averaging 18.3 yards per catch, he’s ripped off several long catches (24, 24, 26, 28, 36, 45 in different games in that set of games). Per Dataroma on X, Palmer has seven receptions on 20-plus air yard targets (9th-best among all NFL WR) and a 77.8% catch rate on those targets (minimum of five targets), which ranks 2n in the NFL. He also has a 14.6-yard aDOT, which ranks 11th-highest. If hobbled teammate Ladd McConkey sits (or is limited), this becomes an even more valuable longshot, but regardless, I think this is worth a shot as well. If you want to be a complete psycho (like me), take an extreme longshot by parlaying all four legs above and get around +13000 odds depending on the book!
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